3月份，MOEX俄罗斯指数升至3200点，距离2月底触及的9个月高点3326点不远，这得益于市场对CBR可能已经结束紧缩周期的预期，而市场仍在评估美国的制裁减免幅度。俄罗斯央行保持政策利率不变，并在经济的反通胀过程中采取了略微乐观的基调，同时表示不太可能需要再次加息。与此同时，美国总统特朗普同意普京总统对俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的部分停火做出更少的让步。随着美国新总统政府的成立，美国的立场与其对克里姆林宫更友好的言论是一致的，最近几周，由于卫星数据显示油轮在俄罗斯码头装载石油，美国没有对俄罗斯油轮船队实施制裁。俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司均出现反弹，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行接近乌克兰战争前的高点。

The MOEX Russia Index rose to 3,200 in March, not far from the nine-month high of 3,326 touched in late February, supported by expectations that the CBR may have ended its tightening cycle while markets continued to assess the magnitude of sanction relief by the US. The Russian central bank held it policy rate unchanged and struck a slightly more optimistic tone in the economy's disinflation process while signaling that it is less likely that another rate hike will be needed. In the meantime, US President Trump agreed to fewer concessions by President Putin for the partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The US stance was consistent with its friendlier rhetoric towards the Kremlin with the introduction of the new US Presidential administration, with US sanctions on Russia's oil tanker fleet not being imposed in recent weeks as satellite data showed tankers loading oil in Russian docks. Rosneft and Lukoil both rebounded, and Sberbank was near pre-Ukraine war highs.

俄罗斯的Nabiullina决定保持关键利率不变。俄罗斯央行行长Elvira Nabiullina和她的副手Alexei Zabotkin周五在新闻发布会上发表讲话，此前央行如预期的那样将关键利率维持在21%。

Russia's Nabiullina on decision to leave key rate unchanged.Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin addressed a news conference on Friday after the central bank, as expected, kept its key interest rate on hold at 21%.

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率从3月18日触及的近两年高点81.7跌至85，因为投资者重新考虑了美国让俄罗斯重返全球金融市场的可行性。普京总统在与美国总统特朗普通话后，没有同意美国在停火协议中提出的所有让步，限制了此前达成协议可能带来与乌克兰和平的希望。因此，投资者减少了之前对俄罗斯证券的抢购，希望美国在恢复与莫斯科经济关系的信号中，将俄罗斯资产重新引入全球金融市场。此外，卢布也受到警告的压力，克里姆林宫可能会继续放松资本管制以削弱货币，因为能源价格的下跌加剧了卢布走强带来的预算收入的稀缺。在政策方面，正如预期的那样，CBR将政策利率保持在21%，并对通货紧缩持更乐观的态度。

The Russian ruble weakened to 85 per USD from the near two-year high of 81.7 touched on March 18th as investors reconsidered the feasability of the US enabling Russia in returning to global financial markets. President Putin refrained from agreeing to all concessions suggested by the US in a ceasefire deal after a call with US President Trump, limiting previous hopes that a deal could introduce peace with Ukraine. Consequently, investors trimmed their previous rush onto Russian securities on hopes that the US would reintroduce Russian assets to global financial markets amid their signals of restoring economic ties with Moscow. Additionally, the ruble was also pressured by caution that the Kremlin may continue to relax capital controls to weaken the currency, as the decline in energy prices magnify the scarcity of budget revenues that come with a stronger ruble. On the policy front, the CBR held its policy rate at 21%, as expected, and stuck a more optimistic tone on disinflation.

俄罗斯央行在2025年3月的决定中将其关键利率维持在21%的历史最高水平，符合预期，并表示不太可能需要进一步收紧以抑制通胀。该行表示，由于需求继续超过国内产能，通胀压力仍然很高，但自上次会议以来，促通胀风险已经消退。这一立场与今年的鹰派基调形成鲜明对比，当时央行行长纳比乌利纳会见了普京总统和商界领袖，他们公开反对高借贷成本，尽管央行承诺加息，但央行仍保持利率不变。这得益于本月卢布飙升期间可观察到的通胀预期放缓，这主要是由于美国可能恢复与俄罗斯经济关系的信号。尽管经济增长反弹，失业率创历史新低，但由于普京的军事动员引发了劳动年龄男性的散居，货币走强的影响仍然存在。

The Bank of Russia held its key interest rate at the record high of 21% in its March 2025 decision, in line with expectations, and signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation. The bank stated that inflationary pressures remain high as demand continues to outstrip domestic capacity, but pro-inflationary risks have subsided since the previous meeting. The stance contrasts with the hawkish tone this year when the CBR held its rate despite pledge of hikes, after Governor Nabiullina met with President Putin and business leaders, who had vocally opposed high borrowing costs. This was underpinned by a slowdown in observable inflation expectations amid the surge in the ruble this month, largely due to signals that the US may restore economic relations with Russia. The impact of a stronger currency prevailed despite a rebound in growth and record-low unemployment rates, as Putin’s military mobilization triggered a diaspora of working-aged men.