富时MIB指数周二早盘上涨1%，连续第四个交易日上涨。在国内新闻中，意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼表示，如果意大利联合信贷银行对BPM银行的收购与国家利益相冲突，政府准备行使特别审查权。联合信贷银行和Banco BPM分别上涨2.4%和1.5%。奢侈品股是早期上涨股之一，Moncler上涨2.2%，Brunello Cucinelli上涨1.3%。此外，Stellantis股价上涨1.2%，从首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯辞职后上一交易日6.3%的暴跌中反弹。

The FTSE MIB climbed by 1% in early trading on Tuesday, marking its fourth straight session of gains. In domestic news, Italian Prime Minister Geogia Meloni said the government is prepared to exercise special vetting powers if UniCredit's takeover bid for Banco BPM conflicts with national interest. UniCredit and Banco BPM gained 2.4% and 1.5%, respectively. Luxury stocks were among the early gainers, with Moncler rising 2.2% and Brunello Cucinelli up 1.3%. Additionally, Stellantis shares rose by 1.2%, rebounding from a 6.3% slump in the previous session following CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation.

富时MIB指数在12月的第一个交易日收盘上涨约0.2%，由于对法国政治动荡的担忧，欧洲市场出现了高波动。与此同时，交易员评估了主要经济体的大量经济数据。在国内方面，最终数据显示，意大利经济在第二季度增长0.2%后，第三季度环比持平。另外，意大利11月制造业活动连续第八个月收缩，为今年最快增速。在个股中，Nexi（+5.5%）领涨，其次是Campari（+2.4%）和忠利（+1.7%）。相比之下，Stellantis仍处于指数底部，在首席执行官Carlo Tavares辞职后下跌6.3%，市场对潜在继任者的猜测以及与雷诺合并的传言可能得到了法国政府的支持。

The FTSE MIB closed about 0.2% up on the first trading day of December, in a session marked by high volatility in European markets due to concerns over political turmoil in France. Meanwhile, traders assessed a raft of economic data from major economies. On the domestic front, final data showed Italian economic growth was flat quarter-on-quarter in Q3, after a 0.2% rise in the second quarter. Separately, Italian manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth month running in November and at its fastest pace this year. Among individual stocks, Nexi (+5.5% led the gains, followed by Campari (+2.4%) and Generali (+1.7%). In contrast, Stellantis remained at the bottom of the index, falling 6.3% following CEO Carlo Tavares' resignation, amid market speculation on potential successors and rumors of a merger with Renault, possibly supported by the French government.

在截至2024年9月的三个月里，意大利经济环比停滞，与6月份季度0.2%的涨幅相比有所放缓，与初步估计相符。这标志着自2023年6月略有收缩以来首次没有增长，因为国内需求的积极贡献被疲软的净外部需求所抵消。最终消费支出增长1%，家庭消费增长1.4%，政府支出下降0.2%。固定资本形成总额下降了1.2%。与此同时，库存积累贡献了0.2个百分点。在对外方面，进口增长1.2%，出口下降0.9%。按年度计算，第三季度国内生产总值增长了0.4%，这是自2020年12月以来最慢的增长，也证实了最初的估计。

Italy’s economy stalled quarter-on-quarter in the three months ending in September of 2024, slowing from the 0.2% advance in the June quarter, matching the preliminary estimate. It marked the first period without growth since the slight contraction in June of 2023, as the positive contribution from domestic demand was offset by weak net external demand. Final consumption expenditure increased by 1%, as household consumption rose 1.4% while government spending fell by 0.2%. Gross fixed capital formation shrank by 1.2%. Meanwhile, inventory accumulation contributed a positive 0.2 percentage points. On the external side, imports increased by 1.2% and exports fell by 0.9%. On an annual basis, the GDP rose by 0.4% in the third quarter, the slowest expansion since December 2020, also confirming the initial estimate.

意大利10年期英国国债收益率降至3.25%，为2022年8月以来的最低水平，交易员评估了法国的政治不稳定、欧洲各地疲软的经济数据以及欧洲央行为应对日益加剧的经济放缓而进一步降息的预期。在法国，由于政党之间的严重分歧，2025年的预算仍远未获得批准，使政府处于崩溃的边缘。与此同时，欧洲PMI继续预示着制造业的急剧收缩，意大利制造商正在经历一年来最具挑战性的情况。在此背景下，人们普遍预计欧洲央行将继续降息，市场预计下周再次降息25个基点的可能性为80%。

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield dropped to 3.25%, its lowest level since August 2022, as traders assessed political instability in France, weak economic data across Europe, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the ECB to counter a deepening economic slowdown. In France, the 2025 budget remains far from approval due to sharp divisions among political parties, leaving the government on the brink of collapse. Meanwhile, European PMIs continue to signal a steep contraction in the manufacturing sector, with Italian manufacturers experiencing the most challenging conditions in a year. Against this backdrop, the ECB is widely expected to continue reducing interest rates, with markets pricing in an 80% probability of another 25bps cut next week.