在美国贸易战期间，加拿大大银行预计将再次降息。所有人的目光都集中在本周三的加拿大银行上，市场普遍预计将再次降息，这是连续第七次降息。这一次，讨论的是削减25个基点，类似于1月份的举措。

BoC expected to trim interest rate again amid US trade war.All eyes are on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with market consensus expecting another rate cut—the seventh in a row. This time, the talk is about a 25-basis-point reduction, similar to the move in January.

加元因贸易混乱而波动，焦点转向加拿大央行降息和美国CPI。一夜之间，加元经历了过山车般的波动，最初在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要将加拿大钢铁和铝进口关税加倍至50%后出现动荡。意外升级将在数小时内生效，市场对此感到不安。

Canadian Dollar Volatile on Trade Chaos, Focus Shifts to BoC Cut and US CPI.Canadian Dollar endured a roller-coaster session overnight, initially hitting turbulence after US President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%. Markets were rattled by the surprise escalation, which was set to take effect within hours.

加元在跌破1.45美元后反弹至1.44美元左右，因宽松的贸易措施提供了缓解。安大略省暂停对美国出口电力征收25%的附加费，特朗普总统表示他正在重新考虑对加拿大钢铁和铝征收双倍关税的提议，这减轻了加拿大出口商的直接成本压力。这些发展有助于通过降低进一步报复性关税和贸易中断的风险来支持加元。然而，货币仍受到疲软的就业报告的压力——仅增加了约1000个职位，而预期为20000个——以及加拿大央行进一步降息的温和前景，再加上新当选总理马克·卡尼领导下的未来贸易谈判仍存在不确定性，卡尼对维持关税直至“美国人表示尊重”的强硬立场使长期政策方向受到质疑。

The Canadian dollar rebounded to around 1.44 USD after having fallen past 1.45 USD, as easing trade measures provided relief. Ontario’s suspension of a planned 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. and President Trump’s indication that he is reconsidering his proposal to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum have reduced immediate cost pressures on Canadian exporters. These developments have helped support the loonie by lowering the risk of further retaliatory tariffs and trade disruptions. However, the currency remains pressured by a weak jobs report—adding only about 1,000 positions against an expectation of 20,000—and a dovish outlook for further Bank of Canada rate cuts, compounded by lingering uncertainty over future trade negotiations under newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose hardline stance on maintaining tariffs until “Americans show us respect” leaves long-term policy direction in doubt.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周二下跌0.5%，收于24248点，触及四个月低点，因美国和加拿大贸易紧张局势升级对加拿大股市造成严重压力。这一下降源于特朗普总统决定将加拿大钢铁和铝的关税提高一倍至50%，并威胁要提高汽车零部件关税，除非加拿大取消对乳制品和其他商品的保护性关税。这些措施增加了供应链中断的风险，降低了工业、金融和运输等关键行业的出口前景。尽管安大略省暂停对美国出口征收25%的电力附加费的计划提供了短暂的缓解，但进一步报复行动的前景让投资者为企业收益下降做好了准备。加拿大皇家银行、道明银行和蒙特利尔银行等主要金融机构股价下跌2%至2.6%，而Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold、Wheaton Precious Metals和Franco-Nevada等矿业权重股股价飙升1.4%至3.4%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.5% to close at 24,248 on Tuesday, reaching four-month lows as escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions press heavily on Canadian equities. This decline stems from President Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% and his threat to raise auto parts duties unless Canada retracts its protective tariffs on dairy and other goods. These measures have increased the risk of disrupted supply chains and reduced export prospects across key sectors such as industrials, financials, and transportation. Although Ontario’s suspension of a planned 25% electricity surcharge on exports to the U.S. offered brief relief, the prospect of further retaliatory actions has investors bracing for lower corporate earnings. Major financial institutions like RBC, TD Bank, and BMO declined between 2% and 2.6%, while mining heavyweights including Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Franco-Nevada surged 1.4% to 3.4%.