标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五收平，收于27036点，在一个明显平静的交易日中保持历史高点，因为投资者在下周7月9日的关税截止日期之前坐下来消化新的国内数据。随着华盛顿将发出信函，概述对一系列进口商品征收高达70%的潜在关税，尽管油价小幅下跌，黄金回吐了几美元，但贸易量仍然低迷，风险也有所缓和。在国内方面，私营部门连续第七个月收缩，商品贸易逆差仍然很大，突显了加拿大复苏的不平衡性，促使市场参与者在承诺新的头寸之前，等待美国贸易发展和国内经济指标的更明确信号。尽管如此，多伦多证交所仍创下1.3%的周涨幅，创下历史新高。

The S&P/TSX Composite closed flat at 27,036 on Friday holding to its all-time high in a decidedly muted session as investors sat on their hands ahead of next week’s July 9th tariff deadline and digested fresh domestic data. With Washington set to dispatch letters outlining potential duties of up to 70% on a range of imports, trading volumes remained subdued and risk-taking was tempered, even as oil prices slipped modestly and gold gave back a few dollars. On the home front, a seventh consecutive month of private-sector contraction and a still-sizable merchandise trade deficit underscored the unevenness of Canada’s recovery, prompting market participants to await clearer signals on both US trade developments and domestic economic indicators before committing to new positions. Still, the TSX posted a 1.3% weekly gain testing new record highs.

标准普尔全球加拿大服务业采购经理人指数从2025年5月的45.6降至2025年6月的44.3，表明服务业的下降速度更快。这是连续第七个月出现收缩，由于市场普遍存在不确定性，特别是与美国贸易政策和关税有关的不安，活动和新业务都在继续下降。与此同时，就业人数连续第二个月小幅上升，为去年11月以来的最佳表现。在价格方面，由于关税、供应商价格上涨和劳动力支出增加，投入价格通胀加速，达到2022年10月以来的最高水平。作为回应，服务提供商将自己的销售价格提高到2024年5月以来的最高水平。最后，由于美国贸易政策的不确定性继续限制乐观情绪，商业信心降至三个月低点。加拿大政府最近的变化和更广泛的经济不稳定也被认为是影响信心的因素。

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI fell to 44.3 in June 2025 from 45.6 in May 2025, pointing to a quicker pace of decline in the services sector. This is the seventh consecutive month of contraction, with activity and new business both continuing to fall amid widespread market uncertainty, especially uneasiness related to US trade policy and tariffs noted. Meanwhile, employment rose modestly for the second month running, the best performance since last November. On the price front, input price inflation accelerated, reaching its highest level since October 2022, driven by tariffs, higher supplier prices and increased labor expenses. In response, service providers increased their own selling prices at the highest level since May 2024. Finally, business confidence reached a three-month low as uncertainty over US trade policies continued to limit optimism. The recent change in the Canadian government and broader economic instability were also noted as factors weighing on confidence.

疲软的加拿大劳动力市场可能正在触底。

Softening Canadian Labour Market May Be Reaching a Bottom.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数徘徊在27030点的持平线以下，投资者根据最新的国内数据权衡了美国即将征收关税的风险。特朗普总统7月9日的最后期限，以及详细说明对许多进口商品征收高达70%关税的信件，给大宗商品和出口依赖型行业带来了压力。能源股从WTI温和反弹中得到安慰，但在欧佩克+产量进一步上调之前仍持谨慎态度，而金矿商在担心特朗普3.4万亿美元税收和支出法案的财政影响时，仅勉强获得微弱支撑。就连皇家银行和Shopify也放弃了早期涨幅，因为制造业和材料公司首当其冲地受到全球需求降温和美国贸易政策收紧的影响。在国内，加拿大私营部门活动连续第七个月收缩，6月份商品贸易逆差为59亿美元，突显出复苏的脆弱性。尽管如此，多伦多证券交易所将其周涨幅扩大至1.2%以上，在本周早些时候再次创下历史新高。

The S&P/TSX Composite hovered below the flatline at the 27,030 level on Friday, as investors weighed the risk of looming US tariffs against fresh domestic data. President Trump’s July 9th deadline, and letters detailing duties up to 70% on many imports, has placed commodity and export-dependent sectors under pressure. Energy stocks took comfort from a modest WTI rebound but remain cautious ahead of further OPEC+ output hikes, while gold miners eked out only marginal support amid concerns over the fiscal impact of Trump’s $3.4 trillion tax-and-spending bill. Even Royal Bank and Shopify surrendered early gains as manufacturing and materials firms bore the brunt of cooling global demand and tighter US trade policy. At home, Canada’s private-sector activity contracted for a seventh straight month and a June merchandise trade deficit of $5.9 billion underscored a fragile recovery. Nevertheless, the TSX extended its weekly advance to over 1.2%, renewing record highs earlier in the week.