周二，美元指数约为99.8，接近5月以来的最高水平，因为交易员在政策制定者发出一系列喜忧参半的信号后，重新调整了对美联储12月降息的预期。上周，鲍威尔主席警告称，12月的举措“并非板上钉钉”。芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比表示，他仍然更关心通货膨胀而非就业，而库克州长则指出劳动力市场疲软的风险正在上升。旧金山联储主席戴利敦促官员们“保持开放的心态”，美联储行长米兰强调，政策仍然具有限制性。市场目前预计，下个月降息25个基点的可能性约为70%，低于上周联邦公开市场委员会决定前的约90%，但仍高于本周早些时候的60%。由于政府持续关闭，公共数据发布有限，投资者现在将注意力转向即将发布的ADP就业报告，以获取对劳动力市场状况的新见解。

The dollar index traded around 99.8 on Tuesday, nearing its highest level since May, as traders recalibrated expectations for the Fed's rate cut in December following a series of mixed signals from policymakers. Last week, Chair Powell cautioned that a December move “is not a foregone conclusion.” Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he remains more concerned about inflation than employment, while Governor Cook pointed to rising risks of labor-market weakness. San Francisco Fed President Daly urged officials to “keep an open mind,” and Governor Miran emphasized that policy remains restrictive. Markets now price in roughly a 70% chance of a 25bps cut next month, down from about 90% before last week’s FOMC decision but still above the 60% seen earlier this week. With public data releases limited amid the ongoing government shutdown, investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming ADP employment report for fresh insights into labor-market conditions.