下周：美元复苏乏力。市场对ADP私营部门的就业估计并不满意。尽管这是自7月以来的首次增长，但截至10月的三个月平均值为3.3万，为2020年8月以来的最低水平。

Week Ahead: Dollar Recovery Getting Tired.The markets were not impressed with the ADP private sector jobs estimate. Although it increased for the first time since July, the average over the three months through October was 3.3k, the weakest since August 2020.

美元走势喜忧参半，因人工智能泡沫担忧、美国政府关门和关税法庭案件相互冲突。这是全球市场又一个动荡的一周，更多的是未解决的宏观风险越来越大。由于美国政府仍处于停摆状态，大量关键经济报告缺失，投资者只能交易情绪而不是事实——周中情绪急剧转为负面。

Dollar Ends Mixed as AI Bubble Fears, US Shutdown, and Tariff Court Case Collide.It was another volatile week in global markets, defined less by fresh data and more by the growing weight of unresolved macro risks. With the U.S. government still in shutdown and a raft of key economic reports missing, investors were left to trade sentiment rather than facts — and sentiment turned sharply negative mid-week.

美联储展望和美国政府停摆导致美元本周收跌。美元兑欧元和瑞士法郎等主要货币下跌，因投资者权衡美联储的鹰派立场与经济不确定性。政府长期停摆推迟了关键就业数据的发布，而中国出口下降加剧了全球经济担忧。

Dollar ends week lower amid Fed outlook, US government shutdown.The U.S. dollar declined against major currencies like the euro and Swiss franc as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance against economic uncertainties. A prolonged government shutdown delayed the release of crucial jobs data, while falling Chinese exports added to global economic concerns.

美国股市从早盘下跌反弹，周五收盘大多走高，因为人们希望国会议员在结束政府停摆方面取得进展。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数收盘上涨0.3%，而科技股为主的纳斯达克指数收盘接近持平，因为人工智能巨头仍面临压力。参议院共和党人拒绝了民主党人提出的降低政府关门要求的提议，但在收盘铃响之前，对即将达成协议的挥之不去的希望改善了风险情绪。密歇根大学调查显示，消费者信心不断恶化，这证明了运营和政府数据的暂停，该调查在11月的记录中排名第二。消费者防御和能源公司领涨，埃克森美孚、T-Mobile和可口可乐上涨超过2%。反过来，对人工智能公司估值过高的担忧继续给科技行业带来压力，特斯拉下跌4%，Meta和甲骨文下跌2%。

US stocks rebounded from early losses to close mostly higher on Friday amid hopes that Congress members were making progress toward ending the government shutdown. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones closed 0.3% higher, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed near the flatline as AI giants remained under pressure. Senate Republicans rejected Democrats' offer to scale down shutdown demands, but lingering hopes of an incoming agreement improved risk sentiment before the closing bell. The suspension of operations and government data were evidenced by the deteriorating consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan survey, which came out at the second-worst reading on record in November. Consumer defensive and energy companies led the gains, with Exxon Mobil, T-Mobile, and Coca-Cola adding more than 2%. In turn, concerns that valuations for AI companies have been stretched too far continued to pressure the tech sector, with Tesla dropping 4% while Meta and Oracle fell 2%.