美联储的Kashkari：政策的不确定性使美联储的工作复杂化。明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari重申，在通货膨胀方面仍有工作要做。

Fed's Kashkari: Policy uncertainty is complicating the Fed's job.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that there is still job to be done regarding inflation.

标准普尔500指数在持平点附近交易，纳斯达克指数下跌0.2%，而道琼斯指数周三上涨约210点，因为交易员在对经济前景日益担忧的情况下等待贸易政策的进一步明确。周二，特朗普总统重申他反对将于4月2日生效的互惠关税的太多例外。与此同时，耐用品订单喜忧参半，订单总额出人意料地上升，而除飞机外的非国防资本货物订单下降了0.3%，低于0.2%的增长预测。能源板块表现最佳，雪佛龙上涨1.3%，科技和通信服务板块跌幅最大。大盘股大多较低，即微软（-0.2%）、英伟达（-2.2%）、亚马逊（-0.2%的）、Meta（-0.3%）和Alphabet（-0.8%）。此外，特斯拉下跌1.9%，而苹果股价保持在绿色（0.1%）。

The S&P 500 traded around the flatline and the Nasdaq declined 0.2% while the Dow Jones gained about 210 points on Wednesday, as traders awaited further clarity on trade policy amid growing concerns over the economic outlook. On Tuesday, President Trump reaffirmed his opposition to too many exceptions on reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2nd. Meanwhile, durable goods orders were mixed, with total orders surprisingly rising while orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 0.3%, missing forecasts of a 0.2% increase. The energy sector was the top performer, with Chevron gaining 1.3% while tech and communication services fell the most. Megacap stocks were mostly lower, namely Microsoft (-0.2%), Nvidia (-2.2%), Amazon (-0.2%), Meta (-0.3%), and Alphabet (-0.8%). Also, Tesla was down 1.9% while Apple shares managed to stay in the green (0.1%).

周三，美元指数攀升至104.3以上，为三周来的最高点，这得益于疲软的经济数据和美国贸易政策的持续不确定性。最新数据显示，非国防资本货物（不包括飞机）的新订单在连续三个月增长后意外下降。飞机是衡量商业投资的关键指标。周二，消费者信心降至四年多来的最低水平，突显出家庭日益增长的担忧。令市场更加谨慎的是，投资者正在等待美国潜在新关税的细节，预计特朗普总统下周将宣布针对汽车、芯片和药品的措施。面对如此多的未知因素，交易员们正在进行防御性定位，支持美元作为避险资产。此外，焦点仍然是周五的个人消费支出价格指数报告，这是美联储首选的通胀指标。

The dollar index climbed above 104.3 on Wednesday, the highest in three weeks, boosted by weak economic data and ongoing uncertainty over US trade policy. The latest data showed that new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key measure of business investment, unexpectedly fell after three months of increases. On Tuesday, consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in over four years, highlighting growing concerns among households. Adding to market caution, investors are awaiting details on potential new US tariffs, with President Trump expected to announce measures targeting autos, chips, and pharmaceuticals next week. With so many unknowns, traders are positioning defensively, supporting the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the focus remains on Friday’s PCE price index report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

美国10年期国债收益率周三升至4.355%，为四周来最高，反映出投资者对经济的不确定性日益增加。对潜在衰退的担忧日益加剧，预计2025年底经济将出现衰退。特朗普总统不断变化的关税政策也扰乱了市场情绪，引发了人们对全球贸易战可能减缓美国经济增长的担忧。疲软的经济数据增加了压力——消费者信心降至12年来的最低点，除飞机外的非国防资本货物的新订单在四个月内首次下降，飞机是衡量商业投资的关键指标。投资者现在正密切关注即将发布的个人消费支出通胀报告，这可能会影响美联储的政策。如果通货膨胀仍然顽固，美联储可能会推迟降息，进一步推高收益率。

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.355% on Wednesday, the highest in four weeks, reflecting growing investor uncertainty about the economy. Concerns about a potential recession are mounting, with expectations of an economic downturn in late 2025. Market sentiment has also been rattled by President Trump’s shifting tariff policies, raising fears of a global trade war that could slow US growth. Weak economic data has added to the pressure—consumer confidence hit a 12-year low, and new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key measure of business investment, declined for the first time in four months. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming PCE inflation report, which could influence Federal Reserve policy. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed may delay rate cuts, further driving yields higher.