美元预测：随着CPI报告的临近，价格在50天均线附近巩固。由于交易员关注下周的CPI，DXY在98.200附近的50天均线徘徊。关税、美联储政治和收益率上升为美元前景定下了基调。

US Dollar Forecast: Prices Consolidating Around 50-Day MA as CPI Report Approaches.DXY stalls at 50-day MA near 98.200 as traders eye next week's CPI. Tariffs, Fed politics, and rising yields set the tone for the U.S. dollar outlook.

周五，美国股市呈绿色，三大股指的合约上涨约0.3%，交易员权衡了特朗普总统的最新关税、公司收益和美联储的发展。新闻显示，美国政府将对金条征收关税，扭转了行业对金条免税的预期。特朗普总统还提名经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran接替美联储理事会主席Adriana Kugler。所有板块均录得涨幅，但健康板块表现优于大盘。在企业方面，英特尔股价上涨0.4%，此前该公司首席执行官表示，在特朗普要求其辞职后，他得到了董事会的支持。吉利德科学公司因盈利强劲而上涨8.6%，特斯拉尽管解散了Dojo团队，但仍上涨1.3%。本周，标准普尔500指数上涨1.6%，为五年来最大单周涨幅，道琼斯指数上涨0.9%，纳斯达克指数飙升2.9%。

Stocks in the US were in the green on Friday, with contracts on the three major averages up about 0.3%, as traders weighed President Trump’s latest tariffs, corporate earnings, and developments at the Federal Reserve. News showed the US administration will apply tariffs on gold bars, reversing industry expectations that they would be exempted. President Trump also nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. All sectors booked gains but health outperformed. On the corporate front, Intel gained 0.4% after its CEO said he has the board’s backing, following Trump’s call for his resignation. Gilead Sciences jumped 8.6% on strong earnings, and Tesla was up 1.3% despite disbanding its Dojo team. For the week, the S&P 500 is up 1.6% - its biggest weekly gain in five, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq soared 2.9%.

美国10年期国债收益率在周一触及三个月低点后，周五连续第四个交易日上涨至4.27%，因为交易员权衡了美联储的变化、新的关税威胁以及对美国再次降息的日益增长的预期。政府宣布对金条征收关税，扭转了行业对豁免的预期，而特朗普总统提名斯蒂芬·米兰接替阿德里安娜·库格勒担任美联储理事会成员。此举引发了人们的担忧，即美联储可能会变得更加政治化，并有可能失去一些独立性。疲软的经济数据——包括令人失望的就业报告、疲软的ISM服务业采购经理人指数和失业救济申请人数增加——加强了市场对下个月降息的押注。与此同时，本周的10年期和30年期国债拍卖表明，对美国债务的需求正在减弱。交易员现在将注意力转向下周的CPI报告和其他关键数据，以获得对美国经济健康状况的新见解。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a fourth straight session to 4.27% on Friday, after hitting a three-month low on Monday, as traders weighed changes at the Fed, fresh tariff threats, and growing expectations of another US interest rate cut. The administration announced tariffs on gold bars, reversing industry expectations of an exemption, while President Trump nominated Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. The move has fueled concerns that the Fed could become more politicized and risk losing some of its independence. Weak economic data — including a disappointing jobs report, a soft ISM Services PMI, and elevated jobless claims — have reinforced market bets on a rate cut next month. Meanwhile, this week’s 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions signaled waning demand for US debt. Traders now turn their attention to next week’s CPI report and other key releases for fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

周五，美元指数小幅下跌至98.2左右，扭转了前一交易日0.2%的温和涨幅，并有望在本周结束时下跌近0.8%。交易员权衡了美联储的变化、新的关税威胁以及对美国利率可能很快再次下调的日益增长的预期。政府宣布对金条征收关税，推翻了行业对豁免的预期，而特朗普总统提名经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran接替Adriana Kugler进入美联储理事会。此举加剧了人们的担忧，即美联储可能会变得更加政治化，其独立性会被削弱。与此同时，疲软的经济数据——包括令人失望的就业报告、疲软的ISM服务业采购经理人指数和失业救济申请人数增加——加强了市场对美联储下个月降息的押注，目前降息25个基点的可能性约为91%。

The dollar index edged lower to around 98.2 on Friday, reversing a modest 0.2% gain from the previous session, and is on track to end the week down nearly 0.8%. Traders weighed changes at the Federal Reserve, fresh tariff threats, and growing expectations that US interest rates could be cut again soon. The administration announced tariffs on gold bars, overturning industry expectations of an exemption, while President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. The move is fuelling concerns that the Fed could become more politicized and see its independence weakened. Meanwhile, soft economic data — including a disappointing jobs report, a weak ISM Services PMI, and elevated jobless claims — have strengthened market bets on a rate cut by the Fed next month, with the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction now around 91%.