美元指数价格预测：在美国首次申请失业救济之前测试98.00支撑位。衡量美元（USD）对六种主要货币价值的美元指数（DXY）连续第二天下跌，周四欧洲早盘交易价格约为98.10。交易员可能会关注北美交易日晚些时候公布的美国每周首次失业救济申请人数。

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Tests 98.00 support ahead of US Initial Jobless Claims.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second consecutive day and trading around 98.10 during the early European hours on Thursday. Traders will likely eye the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims due later in the North American session.

关税和鸽派推动美元走低，英国央行将降息。美元在亚洲市场再次面临压力，随着交易员消化了大量关税动态和美联储官员的温和评论，本周的抛售进一步加剧。虽然亚洲股市保持稳定，小幅上涨，但货币市场显示出更明显的方向性偏差，美元与瑞士法郎和日元一起下跌。

Tariffs and Doves Drive Dollar Lower, Split BoE to Cut.Dollar came under pressure again in Asian session, deepening this week's selloff as traders digested a flood of tariff developments and dovish commentary from Fed officials. While Asian equity markets held steady with modest gains, the currency markets showed clearer directional bias, with the greenback slipping alongside Swiss Franc and Yen.

周四，10年期美国国债收益率微升至4.25%左右，连续第三个交易日上涨，此前新10年期国债拍卖疲软加剧了人们对长期通胀风险的担忧。尽管有所上升，但收益率仍接近三个月低点，因为市场继续对美联储降息和央行潜在领导层变动进行定价。投资者现在关注的是最新的每周失业救济申请数据，此前上周公布的就业报告低于预期，增强了人们对9月降息的预期，12月可能还会降息。更不确定的是，唐纳德·特朗普总统预计将在本周末提名即将离任的美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒的继任者，并将候选名单缩小到四名候选人，以取代美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note edged up to around 4.25% on Thursday, rising for a third straight session after a weak auction of new 10-year notes fueled concerns over long-term inflation risks. Despite the uptick, yields remained near three-month lows as markets continued to price in Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential leadership changes at the central bank. Investors are now focused on the latest weekly jobless claims data, following last week’s softer-than-expected employment report that strengthened expectations for a rate cut in September, with another likely in December. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump is expected to nominate a successor to outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler by the end of the week and has narrowed the shortlist to four candidates to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

美联储的戴利：随着劳动力市场风险的增加，可能很快就会降息。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利连夜表示，她预计央行“在未来几个月”将需要降息，理由是经济逐渐降温，劳动力市场持续存在下行风险。戴利警告称：“我认为进一步放缓是不受欢迎的。”他补充说，一旦失去势头，劳动力市场往往会“迅速而剧烈地下跌”。

Fed's Daly: Rate cut likely soon as labor market risks mount.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said overnight that she expects the central bank will need to cut interest rates “in the coming months,” citing a gradually cooling economy and persistent downside risks in the labor market. “I would see additional slowing as unwelcome,” Daly warned, adding that the labor market tends to “fall quickly and hard” once momentum is lost.