英镑/日元价格预测：由于市场风险，英镑回报率高于202.00。英镑/日元价格预测：由于市场风险，英镑回报率高于202.00

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound returns above 202.00 on risk-on markets.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound returns above 202.00 on risk-on markets

英镑：英国数据提供喜忧参半的信号，英国央行前景微妙平衡——MUFG。英镑：英国数据提供喜忧参半的信号，英国央行前景微妙平衡——MUFG

GBP: UK data provide mixed signals with BoE outlook finely balanced – MUFG.GBP: UK data provide mixed signals with BoE outlook finely balanced – MUFG

英国10年期国债收益率跌至4.553%，为十周来的最低水平，因为投资者在行长安德鲁·贝利发表鸽派言论后加大了对英格兰银行降息的押注。贝利警告称，英国经济运行“低于潜力”，劳动力市场显示出疲软迹象，截至8月的三个月内失业率上升至4.8%，为2021年5月以来的最高水平。他的言论强化了人们的预期，即英国央行最早可能在2月降息25个基点，并可能在2026年第三季度再次降息。贝利指出，持续的通胀风险与就业疲软之间的紧张关系日益加剧，这表明未来政策举措的时机仍不确定。与此同时，在财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯11月26日的预算案之前，财政问题也成为人们关注的焦点，预计她将宣布削减开支和可能的增税，以重建财政空间并安抚债券投资者。

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to 4.553%, the lowest in ten weeks, as investors increased bets on Bank of England rate cuts following dovish comments from Governor Andrew Bailey. Bailey warned that the UK economy is operating “below potential” and that the labor market is showing signs of softening, with unemployment rising to 4.8% in the three months to August, the highest since May 2021. His remarks reinforced expectations that the BoE could cut rates by 25 basis points as early as February, with another reduction likely by the third quarter of 2026. Bailey noted the growing tension between persistent inflation risks and weakening employment, suggesting the timing of future policy moves remains uncertain. Meanwhile, fiscal concerns are also in focus ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s November 26 budget, where she is expected to announce spending cuts and possible tax increases to rebuild fiscal headroom and reassure bond investors.

英镑准备进一步下跌。在国内经济疲软和通胀担忧消退的推动下，英镑仍面临持续压力。英国最近的宏观经济数据显示，服务业停滞不前，消费者支出持续下降。

British Pound Braces for Further Losses.The British pound remains under sustained pressure, driven by a weakening domestic economy and receding inflation concerns. Recent UK macroeconomic data indicate stagnation in the service sector and a continued decline in consumer spending.