俄罗斯卢布兑美元贬值超过96卢布，接近10月16日以来的一年低点97.5卢布，原因是外汇流入日益减少，抵消了鹰派的俄罗斯银行和克里姆林宫为限制本币贬值而实施的资本管制。由于中国制造业前景悲观，对俄罗斯能源出口的预测受到压力，外汇流入俄罗斯经济的前景继续受到抑制。自西方制裁使俄罗斯无法与多个大型经济体进行贸易以来，中国是一个越来越重要的贸易伙伴。因此，莫斯科将出口收益的强制性转换金额从50%放宽至25%，有利于联邦政府继续为入侵乌克兰提供资金。在货币政策方面，预计俄罗斯央行本周将基准政策利率上调100个基点，以扩大其对抗通胀加剧的斗争，并在劳动力危机中平衡经济。

The Russian ruble depreciated past 96 per USD, approaching the one-year low of 97.5 from October 16th as increasingly poor foreign exchange inflows offset a hawkish Bank of Russia and capital controls from the Kremlin to limit the slide in the local currency. The outlook for foreign exchange inflows into the Russian economy continued to be dampened as the pessimistic manufacturing outlook for China, an increasingly important trade partner since Western sanctions shunned Russia from trade with multiple large economies, pressured forecasts of Russian energy exports. Consequently, Moscow relaxed the amount of mandatory conversion of export proceeds to 25% from 50%, favoring proceeds for the Federal Government to continue financing the invasion of Ukraine. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Russia is expected to hike its benchmark policy rate by 100bps this week to extend its fight against elevated inflation and balance the economy amid its labor force crisis.

路透社调查显示，俄罗斯关键利率回升至20%的历史高点。路透社调查的大多数分析师表示，俄罗斯央行预计将把关键利率上调100个基点至20%，与俄罗斯在乌克兰所谓的“特别军事行动”开始时的水平相同。

Russia's key rate seen back at historic high of 20%: Reuters poll.The Russian central bank is expected to hike the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 20%, the same level as at the start of what Russia calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine, according to a majority of analysts polled by Reuters.

2024年9月，俄罗斯生产者通胀率从上月的10.2%降至5.6%，这是自2023年7月以来连续第七次降至最低水平。生产者价格放缓是由于矿商成本的波动（-2.2%对8月份的10.5%）。此外，制造商的成本有所放缓（7.8%对10%），但公用事业提供商的成本有所回升（12.5%对11.3%）。与上月相比，俄罗斯生产者价格指数上涨0.5%。

Producer inflation in Russia fell to 5.6% in September of 2024 from 10.2% in the previous month, the seventh consecutive decrease to the lowest since July 2023. The slowdown in producer prices was owed to a swing in the cost for miners (-2.2% vs 10.5% in August). Additionally, costs slowed for manufacturers (7.8% vs 10%) but picked up for utility providers (12.5% vs 11.3%). From the previous month, Russian producer prices advanced by 0.5%.

2024年8月，俄罗斯的贸易顺差从去年同期的117亿美元收窄至93亿美元，这是自2017年以来贸易顺差最窄的一年，当时不包括2020年疫情造成的能源危机。出口每年下降7.1%，至345亿美元，这与外国对占俄罗斯出口很大一部分的关键能源商品的需求急剧下降相一致。根据第三方来源收集的船舶跟踪数据，自西方制裁避开欧盟客户以来，俄罗斯对中国最大的能源贸易伙伴的石油出口暴跌了55%，导致俄罗斯联邦预算的石油和天然气收入在此期间暴跌28%。与此同时，进口放缓0.9%，至252亿美元，与同期卢布走弱及其对进口需求的影响相一致。

Russia’s trade surplus narrowed to $9.3 billion in August of 2024 from $11.7 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, marking the narrowest trade surplus since 2017, when excluding the energy crisis caused by the pandemic in 2020. Exports sank by 7.1% annually to $34.5 billion, aligned with the sharp decline in foreign demand for key energy commodities that make up a large portion of Russian exports. Oil exports to China, Russia's largest trading partner for energy since Western sanctions shunned EU clients, collapsed by 55% according to ship tracking data collected by third-party sources, which resulted in a 28% plunge in oil and gas revenues for the Russian federal budget in the period. In the meantime, imports eased by a softer 0.9% to $25.2 billion, aligned with a weaker ruble in the period and its impact on import demand.