10年期俄罗斯自由贸易区收益率从10月下旬的四个月高点15.2%降至14.6%，原因是税收增加和油价反弹缓解了自由贸易区供应增加的背景。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间，联邦政府支出的增加促使克里姆林宫提高了明年预算的增值税，预计将产生1.2万亿卢布的额外收入。政府收入前景也受到原油价格上涨的支撑，此前欧佩克+成员国表示明年将暂停增产。这些事态发展暂时抵消了俄罗斯不断恶化的财政背景，因为缓慢的增长迫使政府发出信号，表示今年将增加46%的借款。OFZ也受到俄罗斯银行在应对高通胀时的高利率的压力。基准利率为16.5%，由于通胀风险上升，CBR反对今年再次降息。

The yield on the 10-year Russian OFZ fell to 14.6% from the four-month high of 15.2% from late October as higher taxation and a rebound in oil prices softened the backdrop of increasing OFZ supply. The increasing magnitude of federal government spending in Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove the Kremlin to increase VAT for next year's budget, expected to generate RUB 1.2 trillion of additional revenue. The outlook on government revenues were also supported by the upswing in crude oil prices following pause in output hikes signaled by OPEC+ members for next year. The developments momentarily offset the deteriorating fiscal backdrop for Russia, as slow growth forced the government to signal it will grow borrowing by 46% this year. OFZs were also pressured by high interest rates by the Bank of Russia in its fight against high inflation. The benchmark rate stands at 16.5%, and the CBR pushed back against another rate cut this year due to upside inflation risks.

11月，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为81.5，自第二季度以来一直处于窄幅区间，因为严格的资本管制和高利率抵消了新制裁的影响和俄罗斯经济增长的严峻前景。美国制裁了卢克石油公司和俄罗斯石油公司，对印度的能源出口前景造成了压力，自2022年入侵乌克兰以来，印度一直是俄罗斯石油的主要消费者之一。此外，欧盟宣布将于2027年避开俄罗斯液化天然气。尽管如此，由于克里姆林宫要求出口导向型公司出售40%的外汇收入，对货币的影响不大。此外，俄罗斯央行表示，将在明年年底之前保持政策限制，以遏制通胀压力，限制其意外降息50个基点的影响。西方制裁的长期影响、优先考虑对乌克兰战争的政府支出以及高借贷成本促使国际货币基金组织预测，俄罗斯今年的国内生产总值仅增长0.6%。

The Russian ruble was at 81.5 per USD in November, trading at a narrow range since the second quarter as strict capital controls and high interest rates offset the impact of fresh sanctions and a grim outlook on Russian growth. The US sanctioned Lukoil and Rosneft, pressuring the outlook of energy exports to India, which have been among the main consumers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Also, the EU announced it would shun Russian LNG on 2027. Still, the impact on the currency was muted as the Kremlin's mandates export-oriented companies to sell 40% of their foreign exchange revenue. Also, the Bank of Russia said it will keep policy restrictive until the end of next year to curb inflationary pressures, limiting the impact of its unexpected 50bps cut. The prolonged effect of Western sanctions, government spending that prioritizes the war against Ukraine, and high borrowing costs drove the IMF to forecast that Russia's GDP will only grow 0.6% this year.

标准普尔全球俄罗斯制造业采购经理人指数从9月份的48.2降至2025年10月的48.0，标志着连续第五个月出现收缩，这是自7月以来最严重的下滑，部分原因是新销售额下降更快。在需求疲软的情况下，产量继续下降，尽管下降速度比9月份有所放缓。然而，在现有市场销售条件更加有利的情况下，国外销售额恢复增长。与此同时，就业人数小幅下降，采购活动加快至三个月来最快速度。自2019年11月以来，供应商的交货时间已大幅缩短。在价格方面，投入成本通胀降至16年半以来的最低水平，而产出价格略有下降，因为企业试图刺激新的销售并为现有客户保持有竞争力的价格。最后，商业信心降至2022年5月以来的最低水平，反映出客户对财务困难的担忧。

The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.0 in October 2025, down from September’s 48.2, signaling a fifth consecutive month of contraction and marking the sharpest downturn since July, partly due to a faster drop in new sales. Output continued to fall amid muted demand conditions, though the rate of decline softened from September. However, foreign sales returned to growth amid more favorable sales conditions in existing markets. Meanwhile, employment fell fractionally, and purchasing activity quickened to the fastest pace in three months. Supplier delivery times have shortened to the greatest extent since November 2019. On prices, input cost inflation eased to the lowest level in over sixteen and a half years, while output prices fell marginally as firms sought to stimulate new sales and maintain competitive pricing for existing customers. Finally, business sentiment weakened to the lowest since May 2022, reflecting concerns over financial difficulties among clients.

10月份，俄罗斯标准普尔全球制造业采购经理人指数从之前的48.2降至48。10月份，俄罗斯标准普尔全球制造业采购经理人指数从之前的48.2降至48

Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 48.2 to 48 in October.Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 48.2 to 48 in October