2025年2月，俄罗斯工业生产比上年增长0.2%，此前一个月增长2.2%，但未达到市场预测的1.8%的增长。这标志着自2023年2月以来最疲软的增长，当时工业活动萎缩了2%，而制造业的增长要小得多（3.2%对1月份的7%）。此外，采矿业（-4.9%对-2.1%）、电力和天然气的生产和分配（-3%对-6.4%）以及水和污水分配（-1.8%对3.2%）也出现了下降。2月份工业生产环比下降0.4%，而前一个月暴跌24.1%。

Industrial production in Russia rose by 0.2% from the previous year in February 2025, following a 2.2% increase in the prior month and missing market forecasts of a 1.8% advance. This marked the weakest growth since February 2023, when industrial activity shrank by 2%, as manufacturing increased much less (3.2% vs 7% in January). Additionally, declines were seen for mining (-4.9% vs -2.1%), production and distribution of electricity and gas (-3% vs -6.4%), and water and sewage distribution (-1.8% vs 3.2%). On a monthly basis, industrial production fell by 0.4% in February, following a 24.1% plunge in the previous month.

2月份俄罗斯工业产出低于预测（1.8%）：实际（0.2%）。2月份俄罗斯工业产出低于预测（1.8%）：实际（0.2%）

Russia Industrial Output below forecasts (1.8%) in February: Actual (0.2%).Russia Industrial Output below forecasts (1.8%) in February: Actual (0.2%)

由于交易员评估了俄罗斯、美国和乌克兰之间正在进行的停火谈判，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率小幅上涨至84.2左右。美国与乌克兰和俄罗斯分别达成协议，暂停对黑海和能源基础设施的袭击，但包括开始日期在内的细节尚不清楚。华盛顿还承诺帮助解除对俄罗斯农产品和化肥出口的国际制裁。克里姆林宫证实了该协议，但强调该协议仍以解除对参与农业贸易的银行和公司的制裁为条件。到2025年为止，卢布兑美元汇率已上涨约25%，2月份达到2023年6月的高点81.7，这得益于缓解地缘政治紧张局势的希望。此外，高借贷成本支撑了货币。3月，俄罗斯央行将政策利率维持在预期的21%，同时对通货紧缩采取了更为乐观的立场。

The Russian ruble edged up to around 84.2 per USD as traders assessed ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US brokered separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure, though details, including the start date, remain unclear. Washington also pledged to help facilitate the lifting of international sanctions on Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports. The Kremlin confirmed the agreement but emphasized that it remains conditional on lifting sanctions on banks and companies involved in agricultural trade. So far in 2025, the ruble has gained approximately 25% against the USD, reaching a June 2023 high of 81.7 in February, supported by hopes of easing geopolitical tensions. Additionally, high borrowing costs have bolstered the currency. In March, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its policy rate at 21% as expected while adopting a more optimistic stance on disinflation.

由于交易员密切关注俄罗斯和美国官员之间的停火谈判，MOEX俄罗斯指数在2月底达到9个月高点后跌至3200以下。虽然乌克兰已同意停火30天，但普京总统拒绝接受美国的所有提议，坚称任何协议都必须防止乌克兰重新武装。与此同时，特朗普总统同意减少普京对俄罗斯和乌克兰之间部分停火的让步。美国的立场与政府更迭后对克里姆林宫更为和解的语气相一致。尽管最近有所回落，但MOEX今年迄今仍上涨约9%，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的股价接近乌克兰战争前的水平。此外，俄罗斯最大的黄金生产商Polyus今年的股价飙升了约36%。

The MOEX Russia Index fell below the 3,200 level after reaching a nine-month high in late February, as traders closely monitored ceasefire negotiations between Russian and US officials. While Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, President Putin has resisted accepting all US proposals, maintaining that any agreement must prevent Ukraine from rearming. Meanwhile, President Trump agreed to fewer concessions from Putin for the partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The US stance aligns with its more conciliatory tone toward the Kremlin following the change in administration. Despite the latest pullback, the MOEX is still up about 9% year-to-date, with shares of Sberbank nearing pre Ukraine-war levels. Additionally, Polyus, Russia’s largest gold producer, has seen its stock surge roughly 36% this year.