意大利10年期政府债券收益率回落至3.5%，投资者展望了货币政策的关键一周。普遍预计美联储将在周三降息至少25个基点，同时关注最新的经济预测和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会，以寻找年底前的线索。政策制定者面临着在劳动力市场降温与关税带来的通胀压力之间取得平衡的挑战，而美联储的独立性问题依然存在。在其他地方，预计英格兰银行和日本银行将保持借贷成本不变。在欧洲，欧洲央行上周表示，其降息阶段可能已经结束，行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德强调，增长风险似乎“更加平衡”

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield slipped back toward 3.5% as investors looked ahead to a pivotal week for monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday, with attention also on updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the path into year-end. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing a cooling labor market against inflationary pressures from tariffs, while questions over the Fed’s independence linger. Elsewhere, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are anticipated to leave borrowing costs unchanged. In Europe, the ECB signaled last week that its rate-cutting phase may have concluded, with President Christine Lagarde emphasizing that growth risks appear “more balanced.”

意大利在2025年7月公布了79亿欧元的贸易顺差，高于一年前的68亿欧元，高于预期的55亿欧元，因为出口增长快于进口。出口同比增长7.3%，达到616亿欧元，这得益于对非欧盟（+9.9%）和欧盟（+4.8%）市场的销售额增加。强劲增长来自运输设备，不包括机动车（+45.6%）、药品（+28.5%）、贱金属（+7.0%）和食品、饮料和烟草（+6.1%）。按目的地划分，美国（+24.1%）、东盟（+37.4%）、西班牙（+13.8%）、英国（+9.0%）、法国（+4.7%）、瑞士（+9.5%）和波兰（+12.5%）的出货量大幅增长，而荷兰（-7.8%）、中国（-4.0%）和土耳其（-2.5%）的出货率则有所下降。与此同时，进口增长了6.1%，非欧盟购买量激增13.1%，而欧盟购买量小幅增长0.8%。2025年1月至7月，出口增长2.9%，进口增长4.8%，贸易顺差从去年的360亿欧元缩小到307亿欧元。

Italy posted a trade surplus of €7.9 billion in July 2025, up from €6.8 billion a year earlier, above the expected €5.5 billion, as exports rose faster than imports. Exports grew 7.3% year-on-year to €61.6 billion, driven by higher sales to non-EU (+9.9%) and EU (+4.8%) markets. Strong gains came from transportation equipment excluding motor vehicles (+45.6%), pharmaceuticals (+28.5%), base metals (+7.0%), and food, beverages & tobacco (+6.1%). By destination, shipments rose sharply to the US (+24.1%), ASEAN (+37.4%), Spain (+13.8%), UK (+9.0%), France (+4.7%), Switzerland (+9.5%), and Poland (+12.5%), while declines were recorded for the Netherlands (-7.8%), China (-4.0%), and Turkey (-2.5%). Meanwhile, imports increased 6.1%, with non-EU purchases surging 13.1% versus a modest 0.8% rise from the EU. Over January–July 2025, exports rose 2.9% while imports advanced 4.8%, narrowing the trade surplus to €30.7 billion from €36.0 billion last year.

富时MIB指数周一早盘上涨0.3%，至42680美元左右，连续第六个交易日上涨，达到近三周高点。投资者情绪受到普遍预期的美联储本周晚些时候降息的支撑，因为美国劳动力市场出现降温迹象。在其他地方，美国和中国官员周日结束了在马德里举行的关于紧张贸易关系的第一天会谈，讨论将于今天继续。在企业方面，Leonardo（+2.2%）、意法半导体（+2.20%）、联合圣保罗银行（+1.2%）和BPER Banca（+1.7）是显著上涨的股票。奢侈品牌也表现出色，Moncler和Brunello Cucinelli分别上涨2.8%和3.4%。

The FTSE MIB Index rose 0.3% to around $42,680 in early trading on Monday, extending its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session and reaching a near three-week high. Investor sentiment was supported by a widely expected rate cut from the US Federal Reserve later this week amid signs of cooling in the US labor market. Elsewhere, US and Chinese officials wrapped up the first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade ties, with discussions set to continue today. On the corporate front, Leonardo (+2.2%), STMicroelectronics (+2.2%), Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.2%), and BPER Banca (+1.7) were among the notable gainers. Luxury brands also outperformed, with Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli climbing 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively.

周五，富时MIB指数上涨0.3%，收于42566点，此前欧洲央行周四决定保持利率不变，并对增长和通胀保持乐观前景，导致交易员降低了进一步降息的预期。欧洲央行政策制定者指出了贸易、能源价格和汇率的不确定性，保持了未来汇率选择的开放性。在Monte dei Paschi di Siena（MPS）获得62%的股份后，标普全球评级将Mediobanca的“BBB+”长期信用评级置于CreditWatch负面，理由是尽管有长期利益，但存在潜在的短期风险。MPS（+3.5%）和Mediobanca（+3.4%）领涨，其次是Enel（+0.4%）和Generali（+0.2%），尽管油价上涨，Stellantis（-1.8%）和Eni（-0.2%）仍落后。

The FTSE MIB gained 0.3% to close at 42,566 on Friday, after the ECB decided on Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain an upbeat outlook on growth and inflation, leading traders to scale back expectations for further rate cuts. ECB policymakers flagged uncertainty over trade, energy prices, and exchange rates, keeping future rate options open. S&P Global Ratings placed Mediobanca’s ‘BBB+’ long-term credit rating on CreditWatch negative after Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) secured a 62% stake, citing potential short-term risks despite long-term benefits. MPS (+3.5%) and Mediobanca (+3.4%) led gains, followed by Enel (+0.4%) and Generali (+0.2%), while Stellantis (-1.8%) and Eni (-0.2%) lagged despite higher oil prices.