印度10年期G-Sec交易的收益率升至6.53%左右，为10月1日以来的最高水平，反映出投资者的谨慎态度和对政府债券需求的担忧。印度各州将于周二通过发行债券出售价值1280亿卢比的债券，低于大多数市场预期，这可能表明投资者需求疲软。与此同时，交易员们消化了最新的通胀数据，同时也在权衡特朗普总统提出对中国加征关税的想法后，全球重新出现的不确定性。印度9月通胀率降至1.54%，低于印度储备银行2-6%的目标和1.7%的市场预期，加强了12月降息的理由。印度储备银行本月早些时候保持基准利率不变，但表示未来几个月可能有放松政策的空间，以支持受美国关税压力的经济。现在注意力转向印度储备银行即将于10月15日举行的货币政策会议纪要。

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec traded ticked up to around 6.53%, its highest level since October 1, reflecting investor caution and concerns over demand for government bonds. Indian states are set to sell bonds worth 128 billion rupees via the sale of bonds on Tuesday, lower than most market estimates, potentially signaling tepid investor demand. Meanwhile, traders digested the latest inflation data while also weighing renewed global uncertainty after President Trump floated the idea of punching up tariffs on China. India’s inflation eased to 1.54% in September, below the RBI’s 2–6% target and market expectations of 1.7%, strengthening the case for interest rate cuts in December. The Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged earlier this month but signaled there may be room to ease policy in the coming months to support an economy under pressure from US tariffs. Attention now turns to the RBI's upcoming monetary policy meeting minutes on October 15.

印度卢比兑美元汇率保持在88.7左右，接近历史低点，此前9月份的通胀率降至1.54%，低于1.7%的市场预期和印度储备银行的2-6%目标，加剧了降息预期。此前，央行在9月会议上就未来可能降息发表了鸽派言论。印度储备银行维持利率不变，并保持中立的政策立场，指出温和的通货膨胀为支持经济提供了灵活性。自9月23日以来，该货币在88.7至88.9之间的狭窄范围内交易，促使一些交易员猜测印度储备银行正在大力干预以保持卢比的稳定。人民币疲软背后的关键因素包括长期股权外流、与俄罗斯石油措施相关的美国高额关税、贸易不确定性和签证制度收紧。

The Indian rupee remained around 88.7 per USD, near historic lows, after September’s inflation eased to 1.54%, below market estimates of 1.7% and the RBI’s 2–6% target, fueling expectations of rate cuts. This follows the central bank’s dovish remarks on potential future rate cuts during its September meeting. The Reserve Bank of India kept rates on hold and maintained a neutral policy stance, noting that muted inflation provides flexibility to support the economy. The currency has traded in a narrow range between 88.7 and 88.9 since September 23, prompting some traders to speculate that the RBI is intervening heavily to keep the rupee anchored. Key factors behind the currency's weakness included prolonged equity outflows, steep US tariffs linked to Russian oil measures, trade uncertainties and a tightening visa regime.

卢比不同寻常的平静引发了人们对印度储备银行收紧控制的猜测。卢比一直保持异常稳定，导致交易员怀疑印度储备银行正在干预以防止进一步贬值。据报道，央行已经建立了大量的美元空头头寸来捍卫美元，这标志着其最近更灵活的做法发生了转变。

Rupee's unusual calm fuels speculation of tightening RBI grip.Rupee has remained unusually stable, leading traders to suspect the Reserve Bank of India is intervening to prevent further depreciation. The central bank has reportedly built significant short dollar positions to defend the currency, signaling a shift from its recent more flexible approach.

周一，印度BSE Sensex指数收于82327.1点，下跌约0.2%，投资者保持谨慎，关注第二季度企业业绩、国内CPI通胀、美国政府关门和贸易不确定性。IT滞后，消费和可自由支配行业面临利润预订，金融业因监管宽松而选择性买入。与此同时，特朗普总统威胁从11月1日起对中国商品征收100%关税，这在周末扰乱了全球市场，尽管他后来表示对中国采取了更为和解的立场。与此同时，有报道称，印度和美国即将在2025年秋季完成两国贸易协议第一部分的最后期限。在股票中，塔塔汽车、印孚瑟斯、印度斯坦联合利华、巴拉特电气、ITC和电网是最大的落后者；阿达尼港口、巴贾吉金融、巴贾吉芬塞尔、巴蒂电信、安讯士银行和NTPC涨幅最大。

India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.2% down at 82,327.1 on Monday, as investors remained cautious, with focus on Q2 corporate results, domestic CPI inflation, US shutdown and trade uncertainties. IT lagged, consumption and discretionary sectors faced profit booking, and financials drew selective buying on regulatory easing. Meanwhile, President Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1 unsettled global markets over the weekend, though he later signaled a more conciliatory stance toward China. In the meantime, there were reports of India and the US ticking to a fall 2025 deadline for the first part of a trade deal between the countries. Among equities, Tata Motors, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, Bharat Electricals, ITC, and Power Grid were the biggest laggards; while Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank and NTPC posted the largest gains.