周三，在美联储当天晚些时候为期两天的会议结果公布之前，法兰克福DAX指数在23250左右谨慎交易，几乎没有变化。尽管分析人士预计央行将保持不变，但重点将放在有关货币政策前景的暗示上。与此同时，交易员继续关注财报季，等待美中贸易谈判的进展。在国内，基民盟领导人弗里德里希·梅尔茨作为德国新任总理的第二轮投票成功，带来了一些缓解。在数据方面，德国3月份工业订单增长超过预期。汽车股表现最佳，宝马（+3.4%）领涨，尽管报告第一季度利润下降和收入疲软，但宝马仍确认了其2025财年的前景。该公司表示，对其高端汽车的持续需求是一个关键支撑。相比之下，尽管第二季度业绩高于市场预期，但西门子医疗在下调年度盈利预期下限后下跌了1.6%。

Frankfurt's DAX was little changed around 23,250 on Wednesday, in cautious trading, ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting later in the day. While analysts expect the central bank to stand pat, the focus will be on hints about the monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor the earnings season and awaited developments on US-China trade talks. Domestically, the successful second round of voting for CDU leader Friedrich Merz as the new German chancellor brought some relief. On the data front, German industrial orders rose more than expected in March. Auto stocks were the top performers, led by BMW (+3.4%), which confirmed its fiscal 2025 outlook despite reporting lower Q1 profit and weak revenues. The company cited sustained demand for its premium vehicles as a key support. In contrast, Siemens Healthineers dropped 1.6% after trimming the lower end of its annual earnings guidance, despite posting Q2 results above market estimates.

HCOB德国建筑业采购经理人指数从3月份的40.3升至2025年4月的45.1，为两年多来的最高水平，表明该行业的衰退明显缓解，这是自2023年第二季度以来最温和的收缩。尽管整体活动仍在收缩，但住房、商业和土木工程领域的下降速度明显放缓。尽管价格上涨和客户不确定性持续带来压力，但新订单的下降也大幅放缓，需求指数攀升至2022年初以来的最高水平。商业预期较3月份的37个月高点略有下降，但仍然相对乐观。在过去的14个月里，材料的交付时间也第13次得到改善。与此同时，在3月份短暂放缓后，裁员再次加速，尽管采购和分包商使用的减少继续缓解。在价格方面，投入成本通胀升至14个月来的最高点，但按历史标准来看仍然温和。

The HCOB Germany Construction PMI rose to 45.1 in April 2025 from 40.3 in March, the highest level in over two years, indicative of a notable easing in the sector's downturn—the mildest contraction since Q2 2023. Although overall activity remained in contraction, the pace of decline slowed significantly across the housing, commercial, and civil engineering segments. The drop in new orders also moderated sharply, with the demand index climbing to its highest level since early 2022, despite ongoing pressures from elevated prices and customer uncertainty. Business expectations dipped slightly from March’s 37-month high but remained relatively optimistic. Delivery times for materials also improved for the 13th time in the past 14 months. Meanwhile, job shedding accelerated again after a brief slowdown in March, though reductions in purchasing and subcontractor usage continued to ease. On prices, input cost inflation rose to a 14-month high but remained modest by historical standards.

Merz克服最初的挫折成为德国总理。今晚将举行美联储5月会议，我们预计美联储将根据共识和市场定价保持不变的货币政策。尽管我们预计美联储将在6月恢复降息，但我们怀疑鲍威尔在关税的不确定性下是否会选择明确的前瞻性指导。

Merz Overcomes Initial Setback to Become Germany's Chancellor.This evening the Federal Reserve May meeting takes place, where we expect the Fed to keep an unchanged monetary policy, in line with consensus and market pricing. While we expect the Fed to resume cutting rates in June, we doubt Powell will opt for clear forward guidance amid the tariff uncertainty.

2025年3月，德国工厂订单环比增长3.6%，远高于市场预期的1.3%，并从上月的停滞中反弹。这是自12月以来最强劲的增长，各行业均有广泛增长，包括电气设备（14.5%）、机械设备（5.3%）、飞机、船舶、火车和军用车辆（13.0%）、汽车行业（2.5%）和制药（17.3%）。消费品（8.7%）、资本品（3.7%）和中间产品（2.5%）的订单增加。国内订单增长2.0%，而外国订单激增4.7%，这是由于欧元区（8.0%）和非欧元区国家（2.8%）的需求增加。除大规模订单外，新订单比1月份增长3.2%。然而，与上一季度相比，2025年第一季度的新订单下降了2.3%。

Factory orders in Germany expanded by 3.6% month-over-month in March 2025, well above market expectations of 1.3% and rebounding from stagnation in the previous month. It was the strongest increase since December, with broad-based gains across sectors, including electrical equipment (14.5%), machinery and equipment (5.3%), aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles (13.0%), the automotive industry (2.5%), and pharmaceuticals (17.3%). Orders increased for consumer goods (8.7%), capital goods (3.7%), and intermediate goods (2.5%). Domestic orders grew by 2.0%, while foreign orders surged by 4.7%, driven by higher demand from both the euro area (8.0%) and non-euro area countries (2.8%). Excluding large-scale orders, incoming orders were up 3.2% from January. However, in a three-month comparison, new orders in Q1 2025 were down 2.3% from the previous quarter.