随着法国政治不稳定升级，德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.05%，为两个月来的最低水平。米歇尔·巴尼耶政府面临崩溃的威胁，极右翼的全国集会表示支持对国家预算进行不信任投票。围绕预算的僵局加剧了脆弱的联盟被极右翼和左翼联合反对派推翻的风险。与此同时，在商业活动疲软和服务业通胀放缓之后，市场预计欧洲央行12月降息50个基点的可能性增加。尽管降息25个基点仍是基本预期，但欧洲央行最近的评论，包括管理委员会成员Martins Kazaks的评论，强化了进一步货币宽松的前景。

The yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund dropped to 2.05%, its lowest in two months, as political instability in France escalated. Michel Barnier's government faces the threat of collapse, with the far-right National Rally signaling support for a no-confidence vote over the nation’s budget. The standoff over the budget has heightened the risk of the fragile coalition being toppled by a combined far-right and left-wing opposition. Meanwhile, markets are pricing increased odds of a 50-basis-point ECB rate cut in December, following weak business activity and slowing services inflation. While a 25-basis-point cut remains the baseline expectation, recent ECB comments, including from Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, have reinforced the outlook for further monetary easing.