法国葡萄酒和烈酒联合会松了一口气，但未来几天至关重要。。虽然该协议包括对汽车、半导体和药品等大多数欧盟商品征收15%的基本关税，但公开报道和官方评论表明，农产品，特别是葡萄酒和烈酒，被故意排除在关税清单之外，这可能是为了避免消费者的强烈反对，并保护跨大西洋文化贸易。

French wine and spirits federation are relieved but coming days are crucial..While the deal includes a 15% base tariff on most EU goods such as cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, public reporting and official comments suggest that agricultural products—specifically wine and spirits—were deliberately excluded from the tariff list, likely to avoid consumer backlash and preserve transatlantic cultural trade.

巴黎CAC 40指数周一收跌0.4%，收于7806点，盘中早些时候曾上涨0.9%，因对美欧贸易协定的初步乐观情绪消退，人们对该协议的影响产生担忧。该协议对欧盟对美国的大部分出口产品（包括汽车、半导体和药品）征收15%的基本关税，而欧盟已承诺购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源和额外军事装备。虽然该协议提供了一些清晰度，但最终条款的不确定性引发了欧洲领导人的担忧。在单一股票中，泰雷兹（-4.5%）、欧陆科学（-4.3%）、保乐力加（-3.6%）、开云（-2.6%）和Stellantis（-2.6%）的表现最差。然而，意法半导体股价上涨2.9%，特斯拉向三星订购数十亿美元的订单进一步提振了股价。其他显著上涨的股票包括TotalEnergies（+2.2%）、米其林（+1.3%）、罗格朗（+1.0%）和凯捷（+0.6%）。

Paris’ CAC 40 gave up early gains to close 0.4% lower at 7,806 points on Monday, after rising as much as 0.9% earlier in the session, as initial optimism over the US-EU trade agreement faded and concerns emerged over the deal’s implications. The agreement introduces a 15% base tariff on most EU exports to the US—including automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals—while the EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy and additional military equipment. While the deal offered some clarity, lingering uncertainty over the final terms has sparked concerns among European leaders. Among single stocks, Thales (-4.5%), Eurofins Scientific (-4.3%), Pernod Ricard (-3.6%), Kering (-2.6%), and Stellantis (-2.6%) were among the worst performers. However, STMicroelectronics jumped 2.9%, further lifted by a multi-billion dollar order from Tesla to Samsung. Other notable gainers included TotalEnergies (+2.2%), Michelin (+1.3%), Legrand (+1.0%), and Capgemini (+0.6%).

周五，巴黎CAC 40指数扭转早盘跌幅，收于7835点，上涨0.2%，受欧洲央行宽松预期减弱和欧盟-美国贸易不确定性持续影响，重量级奢侈品板块反弹提振。LVMH股价飙升3.9%，此前其第二季度业绩显示利润率高于预期，再加上中国需求复苏的“有形”迹象以及首席财务官塞西尔·卡瓦尼斯（Cécile Cabanis）对成本纪律的重新关注，而奢侈品同行开云（4.4%）和爱马仕（1.6%）的表现也优于预期。在其他地方，对美国-欧盟关税协议的希望提振了Stellantis（3%）等工业和出口导向型企业。在政策方面，投资者减少了对欧洲央行进一步降息的押注。此前，由于持续的贸易风险和通胀率恢复到2%的目标，欧洲央行一年来首次暂停降息，拉加德总统称欧元区处于“良好状态”。本周，CAC 40指数上涨0.4%。

Paris’s CAC 40 reversed early losses to close 0.2% higher at 7,835 on Friday, lifted by a rally in the heavyweight luxury sector amid fading expectations for ECB easing and ongoing EU–US trade uncertainties. LVMH surged 3.9% after its Q2 results delivered profit margins above forecasts, compounded by “tangible” signs of Chinese demand recovery and a renewed focus on cost discipline under CFO Cécile Cabanis, while luxury peers Kering (4.4%) and Hermès (1.6%) also outperformed. Elsewhere, hopes for a US–EU tariff accord lifted industrial and export-oriented names such as Stellantis (3%). On the policy front, investors have trimmed their bets on further ECB rate cuts after the central bank paused for the first time in a year amid persistent trade risks and inflation’s return to its 2% target, with President Lagarde describing the bloc as being in “a good place.” For the week, the CAC 40 rose 0.4%.

法国10年期政府债券收益率跃升至3.4%以上，触及4月10日以来的最高水平，因为投资者降低了对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期，并在欧盟-美国贸易谈判取得进展的迹象下远离了避险资产。欧洲央行在7月份保持利率稳定，在过去一年中八次降息后暂停，部分原因是在8月1日最后期限之前与特朗普政府的贸易谈判存在不确定性。此外，拉加德总统采取了更为平衡的语气，指出欧元区现在“处于一个良好的状态”，通货膨胀率已恢复到目标水平。据报道，欧盟和美国即将敲定一项协议，对选定的欧洲进口产品征收15%的关税，同时取消对其他国家的关税。在利率市场，进一步宽松的前景已大幅减弱，9月降息的可能性降至25%，而12月降息的几率已从欧洲央行决定前的90%以上降至70%。

France’s 10-year government bond yield jumped past 3.4%, touching its highest level since April 10, as investors scaled back expectations for further ECB rate cuts and moved away from safe-haven assets amid signs of progress in EU–US trade negotiations. The ECB held interest rates steady in July, pausing after eight cuts over the past year due in part to uncertainty around trade talks with the Trump administration ahead of an August 1 deadline. Also, President Lagarde struck a more balanced tone, noting the eurozone is now “in a good place” with inflation returning to target. According to reports, the EU and US are close to finalizing a deal that would introduce 15% tariffs on selected European imports while lifting duties on others. In interest rate markets, the outlook for further easing has weakened considerably, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping to 25%, while odds for a cut by December have fallen to 70%, down from over 90% before the ECB’s decision.