欧元兑美元汇率在1.18美元左右，略低于本周早些时候达到的四年高点，因为美联储的政策决定使美元走强。正如预期的那样，美联储将基金利率下调了25个基点，并表示到年底将再下调50个基点。然而，鲍威尔主席强调，此举是“风险管理”削减，而不是新宽松周期的开始。在欧洲，欧洲央行上周连续第二次保持利率不变，这表明其降息周期可能已经结束。政策制定者继续强调谨慎：执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔敦促政策制定者“保持稳健”，理由是关税、服务通胀、食品价格和财政政策带来的风险。斯洛伐克央行行长彼得·卡齐米尔回应了这一警告，称淡化这些风险是“错误的”。2025年8月，欧元区的通货膨胀率降至2.0%，略低于初步估计的2.1%。

The euro traded around $1.18, slightly below the four-year highs reached earlier in the week, as the dollar firmed following the Fed’s policy decision. The Fed cut the funds rate by 25 bps, as expected, and signaled an additional 50 bps of reductions by year-end. However, Chair Powell emphasized that the move was a ‘risk management’ cut rather than the start of a new easing cycle. In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged for a second consecutive meeting last week, suggesting its rate-cutting cycle may be over. Policymakers continued to stress caution: Executive board member Isabel Schnabel urged policymakers to “keep a steady hand,” citing risks from tariffs, services inflation, food prices, and fiscal policy. Slovak central bank governor Peter Kazimir echoed the warning, saying it would be “a mistake” to downplay these risks. Inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.0% in August 2025, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 2.1%.

周三，STOXX 50收窄早盘涨幅，在5370点附近持平，而更广泛的STOXX 600几乎没有变化，为551点，因为投资者在美联储今天晚些时候的政策决定之前采取了谨慎的立场。人们普遍预计美联储将在9个月内首次降息，在劳动力市场放缓的情况下，将利率下调25个基点至2022年底以来的最低水平。市场还将仔细审查美联储的季度“点图”预测，以寻找未来政策轨迹的线索。在经济数据方面，英国8月份的通胀率稳定在3.8%，与7月份持平，接近2024年1月的水平，略高于预计明天将保持利率不变的英格兰银行。在企业新闻方面，PostNL在其资本市场日公布了一项新战略，宣布计划将其包裹业务分为两个部门，随后上涨了1.5%以上。在Berenberg将这家丹麦制药商从“持有”升级为“买入”后，诺和诺德股价上涨1.6%。

The STOXX 50 pared early gains to trade near the flat line at 5,370 points on Wednesday, while the broader STOXX 600 was little changed at 551, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. The Fed is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut in nine months, reducing rates by 25 basis points to their lowest level since late 2022 amid a slowing labor market. Markets will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” projections for clues on the trajectory of future policy. In economic data, UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in August, unchanged from July and near January 2024 levels, just ahead of the Bank of England, which is expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. In corporate news, PostNL rose more than 1.5% after unveiling a new strategy at its Capital Markets Day, announcing plans to split its Parcels business into two divisions. Novo Nordisk gained 1.6% after Berenberg upgraded the Danish drugmaker to "Buy" from "Hold".

2025年8月，欧元区消费者价格通胀率为2.0%，略低于初步估计的2.1%，因为能源成本下降幅度超过了最初的预期。总体通胀率已连续第三个月达到欧洲央行2%的目标，这增强了人们对货币政策将在一段时间内保持稳定的预期。各类别的价格动态喜忧参半：未加工食品通胀率从7月份的5.4%微升至5.5%，而能源价格在上个月下跌2.4%后下跌2.0%。服务业通胀从3.2%降至3.1%，加工食品、酒精和烟草价格上涨2.6%，略低于2.7%。非能源工业品通胀率维持在0.8%不变。剔除食品、能源、酒精和烟草的核心通胀率稳定在2.3%，为2022年1月以来的最低水平。

Euro area consumer price inflation stood at 2.0% in August 2025, slightly below a preliminary estimate of 2.1%, as energy costs declined more than initially thought. Headline inflation has now matched the European Central Bank’s 2% target for a third straight month, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy will remain steady for some time. Price dynamics were mixed across categories: unprocessed food inflation edged higher to 5.5% from 5.4% in July, while energy prices fell 2.0% after a 2.4% drop the previous month. Services inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.2%, and processed food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 2.6%, down slightly from 2.7%. Non-energy industrial goods inflation was unchanged at 0.8%. Core inflation, which strips out food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, held steady at 2.3%—its lowest since January 2022.

2025年8月，欧元区的年度核心通胀率（不包括食品、能源和烟草价格）连续第四个月为2.3%，与初步估计一致，仍略高于最初市场预期的2.2%。尽管仍处于2021年10月以来的最低水平，但经济没有放缓可能会分散欧洲央行管理委员会鸽派和鹰派成员对货币政策反应的看法，利率期货显示出更大的共识，即欧洲央行今年不会进一步降息。

The annual core inflation rate in the Euro Area, which excludes prices of food, energy, and tobacco, was at 2.3% for the fourth consecutive month in August of 2025, in line with the preliminary estimate and remaining slightly ahead of the initial market expectations of 2.2%. Despite remaining at the lowest level since October 2021, the lack of a slowdown could fragment opinions of monetary policy response between dovish and hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council, with rate futures showing a larger consensus that the ECB will not deliver more rate cuts this year.