委内瑞拉袭击后美中关系受到打击，PMI恢复，人民币继续走强。美国抓捕马杜罗为美中竞争增添了新的战线：关于美国对委内瑞拉的突袭，人们已经说了很多，但以下是我对中国影响的两点看法：

US-China Relations Take a Hit After Venezuela Raid, PMIs Recover, CNY Strengthening Continues.US capture of Maduro adds a new front in US-China rivalry: Much has already been said about the US raid in Venezuela but below are my two cents on the implications for China:

这就是为什么世界其他国家必须关注中国的通货紧缩故事。中国和经济数据。对于北京的叙事来说，这总是很好的，而这就是其中之一。

Here's why the rest of the world has to keep an eye on China's deflation story.China and economic data numbers. It always just tends to play out nicely for Beijing's narrative and this is one of those times.

中国CPI意外上涨0.8%，但全年表现疲软。中国12月消费者通胀加速，CPI同比从0.7%升至0.8%，高于预期的0.6%，创下34个月新高。这一增长主要是由食品价格推动的，新鲜蔬菜价格飙升18.2%，牛肉价格上涨6.9%，受新年前假期需求的支撑。

China CPI surprises to upside at 0.8%, but full-year picture weak.China's consumer inflation accelerated in December, with CPI rising from 0.7% to 0.8% yoy, above expectations of 0.6% and marking a 34-month high. The increase was driven mainly by food prices, as fresh vegetables surged 18.2% and beef prices rose 6.9%, supported by pre-New Year holiday demand.

随着通货膨胀率上升，中国在2025年避免了通货紧缩，但仍有可能放松。中国在2025年勉强避免了彻底的通货紧缩，消费者通胀率在年底达到近三年来的最高水平，不过，荷兰国际集团的分析师警告称，价格压力仍然很低，远低于其他主要经济体的水平。

China avoids deflation in 2025 as inflation edges higher, easing still likely.China narrowly avoided outright deflation in 2025, with consumer inflation ending the year at its highest level in nearly three years, though, analysts at ING caution that price pressures remain subdued and well below levels seen in other major economies.