德国10年期国债收益率攀升至2.68%,为10月9日以来的最高水平,人们乐观地认为,在美国参议院最近提出一项重新开放联邦机构的措施后,美国政府关门可能很快就会结束。与此同时,投资者考虑了对德国国内经济前景的持续担忧,以及央行对货币政策未来的混合信号。最近的数据显示,德国工业产出低于预期,而德国央行警告称,金融稳定风险正在上升。欧洲央行副行长德金多斯在周一的一次采访中表示,目前的政策利率是适当的,并强调欧洲央行需要保持“非常谨慎和谨慎”。货币市场目前认为,到2026年9月,欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性约为40%。在大西洋彼岸,在美国数据显示10月份失业、消费者信心急剧下降和裁员达到20年来的最高点后,对12月份美联储降息的预期增强。
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed to 2.68%, its highest level since October 9, amid optimism that the US government shutdown may soon end after the US Senate recently advanced a measure to reopen federal agencies. At the same time, investors considered ongoing concerns about Germany’s domestic economic outlook alongside mixed signals from central banks on the future of monetary policy. Recent data showed weaker-than-expected German industrial output, while the Bundesbank warned of rising financial stability risks. ECB Vice President de Guindos said in a Monday interview that policy rates are currently appropriate and emphasized the need for the ECB to remain “very prudent and cautious.” Money markets currently assign about a 40% probability of a 25bp ECB rate cut by September 2026. Across the Atlantic, expectations for a December Fed rate cut strengthened after US data showed October job losses, a sharp decline in consumer sentiment, and layoffs reaching a 20-year high.