美国股市周五收于新高，延续了前一交易日创纪录的涨幅，投资者消化了乐观的企业盈利、美联储2025年首次降息以及美中关系取得进展的迹象。标准普尔500指数上涨0.5%，突破6600点大关，纳斯达克100指数上涨0.7%，道琼斯指数上涨172点，首次突破46300点。联邦快递在公布强于预期的业绩后上涨2.3%，而苹果在摩根大通上调目标价和推出新款iPhone后上涨3.2%。特斯拉上涨2.2%，此前贝尔德评级上调至“跑赢大盘”，帮助提振了科技和非必需消费品行业。市场还跟踪了特朗普总统与中国Xi之间的长时间通话，特朗普注意到在贸易、芬太尼和潜在的TikTok交易方面取得了进展。三大股指均实现周内上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.5%。

US stocks closed at new highs on Friday, extending the record-setting gains from the prior session as investors digested upbeat corporate earnings, the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, and signs of progress in US-China relations. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, surpassing the 6,600 mark, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7%, and the Dow advanced 172 points to climb above 46,300 for the first time. FedEx jumped 2.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, while Apple surged 3.2% on a J.P. Morgan price target hike and the launch of its new iPhone. Tesla rose 2.2% following an upgrade to “outperform” from Baird, helping lift the tech and consumer discretionary sectors. Markets also tracked a lengthy call between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, with Trump noting progress on trade, fentanyl, and a potential TikTok deal. All three major indexes posted weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.8%, the Dow rising 1%, and the Nasdaq advancing 1.5%.

美元预测：9月联邦公开市场委员会降息似曾相识？2024年对比2025年。美联储刚刚实施了四年来的首次降息，选择了比往常更大的50个基点的降息幅度。鲍威尔主席将其描述为积极的“保险削减”，以防止劳动力条件降温，尽管失业率仍处于4.2%的低位，核心个人消费支出略高于央行2.7%的目标，但一些交易员怀疑是否需要采取这样的举措。

US Dollar Forecast: September FOMC Rate Cuts Déjà vu? 2024 vs. 2025.The Federal Reserve has just delivered its first rate cut in four years, opting for a larger than usual 50bp reduction. Chair Powell framed it as a proactive “insurance cut” to protect against cooling labor conditions, though with the unemployment rate at a still-low 4.2% and Core PCE slightly above the central bank's target at 2.7%, some traders are skeptical that such a move was needed.

周五下午，华尔街主要指数创下历史新高，投资者权衡了乐观的企业盈利、美联储2025年首次降息以及美中关系取得进展的迹象。标准普尔500指数上涨0.3%，纳斯达克100指数上涨0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨100多点，延续了前一交易日创下的历史新高。联邦快递在公布强于预期的业绩后上涨了近3%，而苹果在摩根大通上调目标价和推出新款iPhone后上涨了2.8%。特斯拉上涨1.5%，此前贝尔德评级上调至“跑赢大盘”，帮助提振了科技和非必需消费品行业。与此同时，市场跟踪了特朗普总统与中国Xi之间的长时间通话，特朗普强调了在贸易、芬太尼和潜在的TikTok交易方面取得的进展。尽管走势起伏不定，但三大股指仍有望实现稳健的周涨幅，突显出持续反弹的强劲势头。

Wall Street’s main indexes were trading at record highs in Friday’s afternoon session, as investors weighed upbeat corporate earnings, the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, and signs of progress in US-China relations. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, while the Dow added more than 100 points, extending the all-time highs set in the previous session. FedEx climbed nearly 3% after posting stronger-than-expected results, while Apple jumped 2.8% on a J.P. Morgan price target hike and the launch of its new iPhone. Tesla advanced 1.5% following an upgrade to “outperform” from Baird, helping lift the tech and consumer discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, markets tracked a lengthy call between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, with Trump highlighting progress on trade, fentanyl, and a potential TikTok deal. Despite choppy moves, all three major indexes remain on course for solid weekly gains, underscoring the strength of the ongoing rally.

下周全球利率前景仍将是焦点，包括鲍威尔主席在内的联邦公开市场委员会成员将发表重要讲话，跟进美联储最近的降息。市场和政策制定者将评估个人消费支出通胀、个人消费和支出的最新情况，以及第二季度GDP的最新估计，以获得对经济的重要见解。美国发布的其他重要数据包括耐用品订单、采购经理人指数、经常账户和新房销售。PMI也将成为印度、澳大利亚、日本、英国、德国、法国和欧元区的重点，而工业利润将来自中国。与此同时，中国、瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥正在等待货币政策决定。在地缘政治方面，世界各国领导人在全球政治动荡的时刻齐聚纽约参加联合国大会。

The outlook on global rates will remain the focus next week, with key speeches from FOMC members, including Chairman Powell, to follow up on the Fed's recent rate cut. Markets and policymakers will assess updates on PCE inflation, personal consumption and spending, and an updated Q2 GDP estimate for important insights on the economy. Other important US releases include durable goods orders, PMI readings, the current account, and new home sales. PMIs will also be the focus in India, Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the aggregate for the Eurozone, while industrial profits are due from China. In the meantime, monetary policy decisions are awaited in China, Switzerland, Sweden, and Mexico. On the geopolitical front, world leaders are convening in New York for the United Nations General Assembly at a turbulent moment for global politics.