2026年美联储降息，市场分裂，圣诞老人集会待命。美元本周大部分时间都被钉在业绩板的底部，因为稳定的数据流强化了对美联储12月降息的预期。尽管周五抛售压力略有缓解，部分原因是长期国债收益率出人意料地强劲反弹，但美元仍难以站稳脚跟。

Santa Rally on Standby with Markets Split on 2026 Fed Cuts.Dollar spent most of the week pinned to the bottom of the performance board, as a steady flow of data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Even though selling pressure eased slightly into Friday—thanks in part to a surprisingly firm rebound in longer-dated Treasury yields—the greenback still struggled to find a foothold.

美联储预览：市场预测降息，但该行预计美联储将保持。联合信贷银行的经济学家预计，美联储下周将保持利率不变，这一立场与市场定价背道而驰，目前市场定价认为降息的可能性超过90%。该行认为，如果这是正确的，美元兑欧元和英镑在最近全线回落后可能会重新站稳脚跟。

Federal Reserve Preview: Markets Price a cut, but This Bank Expects the FED to Hold.Economists at UniCredit expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold next week, a stance that runs against market pricing, which now assigns more than a 90 percent chance of a cut. The bank argues that if it is right, the US Dollar could regain ground against the Euro and Pound Sterling after its recent retreat across the.

美元预测：随着美联储鸽派预期的建立，DXY疲软。美元走弱，交易员预计美联储下周降息的可能性为87%。疲软的劳动力数据和温和的预期超过了联邦公开市场委员会之前国债收益率的上升。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Weakens as Dovish Fed Expectations Build.Dollar weakens as traders price in 87% chance of Fed rate cut next week. Weak labor data and dovish expectations outweigh rising Treasury yields ahead of FOMC.

美联储利率决定是下周的亮点。美联储的决定是下周央行四项决定中的一项。澳大利亚储备银行将于周一晚上（美国东部时间晚上10:30）在美国宣布其利率决定。预计3.60%不变。

The US Federal Reserve rate decision the highlight next week.The Fed decision is 1 of 4 central bank decisions next week. The reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decision on Monday night in the US (10:30 PM ET) The expectations are for no change at 3.60%.