周四，10年期美国国债收益率跌至4.23%以下，创下两周新低，因交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注。市场现在认为，9月份降息25个基点的可能性为89%，高于一周前的82%。这一转变发生之际，唐纳德·特朗普总统试图通过罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并用一位更温和的候选人取而代之，来扩大他对美联储的影响力。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周三表示，正在考虑降息，这加剧了鸽派的前景。投资者现在正在等待周五的个人消费支出价格指数——美联储首选的通胀指标——以获得更多信号，而下周的月度就业报告将提供劳动力市场强劲的新数据。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell below 4.23% on Thursday, marking a two-week low as traders boosted bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets now see an 89% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, up from 82% a week earlier. The shift came as President Donald Trump sought to expand his influence over the central bank by attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and replace her with a more dovish candidate. Adding to the dovish outlook, New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday that a rate reduction was under consideration. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — for additional signals, while next week’s monthly payrolls report will provide a fresh read on labor market strength.

美元指数——牛市重新获得牵引力和关键障碍。周三，美元指数走强，创下本周新高，显示出对特朗普总统决定解雇库克州长后美国央行最新政治动荡的弹性。

Dollar Index – Bulls Regained Traction and Eye Key Barriers.The dollar index firmed on Wednesday and hit week's high, showing resilience to the latest political turmoil in the US central bank after President Trump decided to fire Governor Cook.

周四，由于交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注，美元指数在放弃前一交易日的盘中涨幅后徘徊在98.1左右。市场现在认为，9月份降息25个基点的可能性约为89%，高于一周前的82%。这一转变发生之际，唐纳德·特朗普总统试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并用一位更温和的候选人取而代之，从而扩大了他对美联储的影响力。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯周三表示，正在考虑降息，这加剧了鸽派的语气。展望未来，投资者等待周五的个人消费支出价格指数——美联储首选的通胀指标——以获取进一步的政策线索。从外部来看，即使在法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁出人意料地宣布下个月进行信任投票后，美元兑欧元汇率仍下跌，人们普遍预计此举将推翻他的少数派政府。

The dollar index hovered around 98.1 on Thursday after giving up intraday gains in the previous session as traders increased bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Markets now assign about an 89% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, up from 82% a week earlier. The shift came as President Donald Trump expanded his influence over the central bank after attempting to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook and replace her with a more dovish nominee. Adding to the dovish tone, New York Fed President John Williams signaled on Wednesday that a rate reduction was being considered. Looking ahead, investors await Friday’s PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — for further policy cues. Externally, the dollar slipped against the euro even after French Prime Minister François Bayrou unexpectedly called a confidence vote for next month, a move widely expected to topple his minority government.

9月美联储削减赌注，美元处于守势。美元周四开盘走低，交易员们加大了对美联储下个月降息的押注，此前纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示有可能降息。

Dollar on defensive as September Fed cut bets ramp up.The dollar started Thursday on the back foot as traders added to bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction next month after New York Fed chief John Williams signaled a cut was possible.