美元指数：如果美联储发出启动政策宽松周期的信号，空头可能会加速。美元指数从8月初的峰值100区间延续了熊市，这是1月初峰值110.00（今年下跌约12%）的更大下跌趋势的一部分，在过去两天的最新加速下跌中下跌了1%。

Dollar Index: Bears May Accelerate If Fed Signals a Start Policy Easing Cycle.The dollar index extended the bear-leg from early Aug peak at 100 zone, a part of larger downtrend from early January peak at 110.00 (down around 12% for the year) and registered 1% loss in in the latest acceleration lower in past two days.

FOMC预览：关注点图和美联储主席鲍威尔的指引。今天，预计美联储将在2024年12月最后一次降息后，最终重新开始向中性利率迈进。让我们看看市场对什么进行了定价，以及什么样的意外可能会引发预期的重新定价。

FOMC Preview: Focus on the dot plot and Fed Chair Powell guidance.Today the Fed is expected to finally restart its journey towards the neutral rate after the last cut in December 2024. Let's see what's priced in by the market and what kind of surprises could trigger a repricing in expectations.

根据抵押贷款银行家协会的数据，截至9月12日，美国抵押贷款申请量比前一周激增29.7%，这是自1月以来的最大增长率，也是自2020年3月利率暴跌以来的第二高增长率。这一结果与基准抵押贷款利率暴跌10个基点相吻合，将上周的15个基点跌幅扩大到近一年来的最低水平，因为一波悲观的劳动力市场数据推动长期国债收益率暴跌。抵押贷款再融资合同的申请量比前一周激增了60%，平均贷款规模达到了一系列高点，该合同对利率的短期变化更为敏感。反过来，购买新房的抵押贷款申请也上涨了3%。

The volume of mortgage applications in the US surged by 29.7% from the previous week in the period ending September 12th, the sharpest growth rate since January and the second-highest since interest rates crashed in March of 2020, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The result aligned with a 10bps plunge in benchmark mortgage rates, extending the 15bps drop on the previous week to their lowest in nearly one year, as a wave of pessimistic labor market data drove yields on long-dated Treasury securities to plunge. Application volumes for a contract to refinance a mortgage, which is more sensitive to short term changes in interest rates, surged by 60% from the previous week, with average loan sizes reaching a series-high. In turn, applications for a mortgage to buy a new home inched 3% higher.

根据抵押贷款银行家协会的数据，在截至2025年9月12日的一周内，美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均合同利率（806500美元或更低）从上一时期的6.49%急剧降至6.39%，为2024年10月以来的新低。抵押贷款利率连续第三周下降，随着投资者越来越相信美联储将在9月恢复降息，国债收益率也在下降。因此，抵押贷款申请激增29.7%，住房贷款再融资申请飙升58%。

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) in the US fell sharply to 6.39% in the week ending September 12th 2025, a fresh low since October 2024, from 6.49% in the previous period, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates were down for a third consecutive week, tracking lower Treasury yields as investors get increasingly convinced the Fed will resume rate cuts in September. As a result, mortgage applications jumped 29.7% and applications to refinance a home loan soared 58%.