在NFP意外之后，美元又回来了？。

After NFP surprise, US Dollar Back in Play?.

美国6月ISM服务业反弹至50.8，意味着GDP年增长率为0.7%。

US ISM services rebounds to 50.8 in June, implies 0.7% annualized GDP growth.

2025年5月，美国制成品的新订单比上月激增8.2%，达到6420亿美元，与市场预期一致，抵消了修正后的3.9%的环比下降。这是自2014年以来订单的最大增幅。由于非国防飞机和零件（239.8%至598亿美元），运输设备大幅增长（48.3%至1454亿美元）。飞机订单的激增完全支撑了这一时期的需求增长，因为除该行业外的工厂订单增长了0.2%，维持了上个月0.6%的大部分下降。计算机和电子产品（1.5%至262.5亿美元）、机械（0.4%至380亿美元）和金属制品（0.8%至407.6亿美元）的订单增长较少。与此同时，非耐用品订单增长0.1%，达到2984.7亿美元。

New orders for US manufactured goods surged by 8.2% from the previous month to $642 billion in May of 2025, aligned with market expectations, and more than offsetting the revised 3.9% decline from the previous month. It was the sharpest jump in orders since 2014. Sharp increases were recorded for transportation equipment (48.3% to $145.4 billion) due to nondefense aircraft and parts (239.8% to $59.8 billion). The surge in aircraft orders solely supported the demand growth for the period, as factory orders excluding the sector were 0.2% higher, maintaining most of the 0.6% drop last month. Orders grew less for computers and electronics (1.5% to $26.25 billion), machinery (0.4% to $38 billion) and fabricated metal products (0.8% to $40.76 billion). In the meantime, orders for non-durable goods were 0.1% higher to $298.47 billion.

ISM服务业采购经理人指数从5月份的49.9升至2025年6月的50.8，略高于50.5的预测。该数据显示，在经历了一个月的收缩后，6月份服务业的经济活动有所增加，尽管企业经常提到增长缓慢和经济不确定性。商业活动/生产（54.2比50）、新订单（51.3比46.4）、库存（52.7比49.7）和新出口订单（51.1比48.5）出现反弹。与此同时，价格压力有所缓解（67.5比68.7），尽管本月更频繁地提到影响运营成本的价格上涨。中东紧张局势是6月份评论的新主题，但没有迹象表明相关的供应链中断。调查小组成员中最常见的话题仍然是对关税相关影响的担忧。此外，订单积压继续下降（42.4比43.4），供应商交付绩效再次放缓（50.3比52.5）。

The ISM Services PMI rose to 50.8 in June 2025 from 49.9 in May, slightly above forecasts of 50.5. The reading showed economic activity in the services sector increased in June after just one month of contraction, although slow growth and economic uncertainty were frequently referenced by firms. A rebound was seen in business activity/production (54.2 vs 50), new orders (51.3 vs 46.4), inventories (52.7 vs 49.7) and new export orders (51.1 vs 48.5). Meanwhile, price pressure eased a bit (67.5 vs 68.7) although price increases impacting costs of operations were mentioned more frequently this month. Middle East tensions were a new subject of comments in June, but there was no indication of related supply chain disruptions. The most common topic among survey panelists continued to be concerns about impacts related to tariffs. In addition, backlog of orders continued its decline (42.4 vs 43.4) and supplier delivery performance slowed again (50.3 vs 52.5).