周二，美国股市上涨，追随美国国债的积极走势，此前悲观的经济数据和企业信号支持了对即将降息的押注。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数上涨，道琼斯指数上涨200点。美国3月份的职位空缺为719万个，低于预期，而CB情绪调查显示悲观情绪激增。同样，关税问题促使美国设定了有史以来最大的贸易上限。市场对美联储今年降息100个基点的定价，而美联储上个月的信号为50个基点。霍尼韦尔（Honeywell）和辉瑞（Pfizer）因强劲的盈利分别上涨了5%和4%以上，软件公司的股价也全面上涨。尽管如此，贸易和经济政策的不确定性促使UPS不愿给出全年展望，使其股价承压2%。此外，通用汽车在取消股票回购并因可能征收关税而下调前景后下跌了4%。

US stocks gained some traction on Tuesday, tracking the positive session for Treasuries after pessimistic economic data and corporate signals supported wagers of incoming rate cuts. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were higher, and the Dow gained 200 points. Job openings in the US were at 7.19 million in March, lower than expected, while the CB sentiment survey pointed to a surge in pessimism. Likewise, tariff concerns drove the US to post its largest trade cap on record. Markets moved to price 100bps in cuts by the Fed for the year, compared to the central bank's 50bps signal last month. Honeywell and Pfizer jumped more than 5% and 4% each on strong earnings, and software companies were higher across the board. Still, trade and economic policy uncertainty drove UPS to refrain from giving a full-year outlook, pressuring their shares by 2%. Also, GM sank 4% after it cancelled its share buyback and pulled its outlook due to the possibility of tariffs.

美元预测：由于关税风险和就业数据给市场带来压力，DXY在99.10附近挣扎。DXY稳定在99.10以上，但欧元走强、疲软的劳动力数据和贸易紧张局势对前景构成压力。关键支撑位可能很快就会受到考验。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market.DXY steadies above 99.10, but euro strength, weak labor data, and trade tensions weigh on outlook. Key support levels could soon be tested.

达拉斯联邦储备银行得克萨斯州服务业的一般商业活动指数在2025年4月下降8.1点，至-19.4，为2023年10月以来的最低水平，表明商业状况进一步恶化。与此同时，衡量国有服务业状况的关键指标收入指数上升3点，至+3.8。劳动力市场指标显示就业疲软，就业指数从2.2降至-5.1，兼职就业指数从-1.7降至-3.4。此外，前景恶化，公司前景指数降至-15.5的34个月低点，前景不确定性指数飙升13点至40.5，为2022年中期以来的最高水平。价格压力加剧，销售价格指数升至8.4，投入价格从27.0攀升至32.5，而工资增长稳定在9.1。与此同时，未来一般商业活动指数从-1.1降至-16.0，而未来收入指数下降14点至16.8，为2020年年中以来的最低水平。

The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas services dropped 8.1 points to -19.4 in April 2025, the weakest since October 2023, signaling further deterioration in business conditions. Meanwhile, the revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose 3 points to +3.8. Labor market indicators pointed to weakening employment, with the employment index dropping to -5.1 from 2.2, and the part-time employment index slipping to -3.4 from -1.7. Additionally, outlooks worsened, with the company outlook index falling to a 34-month low of -15.5 and the outlook uncertainty index surging 13 points to 40.5, the highest since mid-2022. Price pressures intensified, as the selling prices index rose to 8.4 and input prices climbed to 32.5 from 27.0, while wage growth remained steady at 9.1. Meanwhile, the future general business activity index slipped to -16.0 from -1.1, while the future revenue index dropped 14 points to 16.8, the lowest reading since mid-2020.

周二，美元指数保持在99.1以上，在近期下跌后有所回升，因为投资者消化了新的经济数据，并关注了全球贸易的最新情况。美国贸易数据显示，随着进口激增，3月份商品赤字跃升至创纪录的1620亿美元，远高于预期，这可能是由于企业和消费者在特朗普总统4月2日宣布的新关税生效之前急于购买商品。与此同时，4月份消费者信心连续第五个月下降至新冠肺炎疫情早期以来的最低水平，预期达到13年来的最低水平。3月份的职位空缺也比预期的要少。在贸易方面，财政部长贝森特称中国的关税“对中国来说是不可持续的”，并指出美国“非常接近”与印度达成贸易协议。展望未来，投资者正在等待周三公布的第一季度GDP和美联储首选的个人消费支出通胀指标，以及周五公布的4月份就业报告。

The dollar index held above 99.1 on Tuesday, recovering some ground after recent losses as investors digested fresh economic data and watched for updates on global trade. U.S. trade data showed the goods deficit jumped to a record $162 billion in March, well above forecasts, as imports surged—likely due to businesses and consumers rushing to buy goods before new tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2nd took effect. Meanwhile, consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month in April to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, with expectations hitting a 13-year low. Job openings also declined more than expected in March. On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Bessent described Chinese tariffs as “unsustainable for China” and noted that the U.S. was “very close” to securing a trade deal with India. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting Q1 GDP and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge on Wednesday, followed by the April jobs report on Friday.