美国4周期票据拍卖从之前的3.945%降至3.91%。美国4周期票据拍卖从之前的3.945%降至3.91%

United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 3.945% to 3.91%.United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 3.945% to 3.91%

周四，美元指数连续第二个交易日上涨至99.5点，此前美联储主席鲍威尔的言论降低了进一步降息的预期。美联储周三按预期降息25个基点，但鲍威尔强调，12月降息并非板上钉钉。市场暗示，12月再次降息的可能性从会议前的约90%大幅降至约68%。投资者普遍预计12月将再降息25个基点，与美联储9月份的预测一致。与此同时，特朗普总统和Xi总统的会晤结束时，美国将对中国进口商品的总体关税降低10%至47%，而北京承诺限制芬太尼出口并增加对美国大豆的购买。这些结果被市场广泛预期。在日本央行保持利率不变后，美元兑日元汇率涨幅最大，人们越来越猜测央行今年可能不会采取进一步行动。

The dollar index strengthened for a second consecutive session to 99.5 on Thursday, after comments from Fed Chair Powell lowered expectations for further interest rate cuts. The Fed delivered a 25bps reduction as expected on Wednesday, but Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Market-implied odds of another cut in December fell sharply to around 68% from about 90% prior to the meeting. Investors had largely anticipated an additional 25bps cut in December, in line with the Fed’s September projections. Meanwhile, the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi concluded with the US lowering overall tariffs on Chinese imports by 10% to 47%, while Beijing pledged to curb fentanyl exports and increase purchases of US soybeans. These outcomes were broadly anticipated by markets. The greenback gained the most against the yen after the BoJ left interest rates unchanged and speculation grew that the central bank may refrain from additional moves this year.

周四，10年期美国国债收益率升至4.1%以上，在联邦公开市场委员会发出鹰派信号的情况下，在过去两个交易日上涨了14个基点。正如预期的那样，美联储昨日将利率下调了25个基点，但主席鲍威尔淡化了12月再次降息的确定性，这反映了政策制定者对核心通胀率顽固地保持在3%以上的担忧。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的施密德也持反对意见，投票支持暂停。与此同时，美联储的资产负债表决选将于12月初结束，将全部到期的国债展期，并将其MBS资产再投资于国库券，旨在缓解隔夜融资市场最近的压力。利率期货继续预计到明年7月将再降息三次。此前对经济放缓、美国政府关门以及对美联储资产负债表稳定的押注的担忧，推动10年期国债收益率在10月22日跌至3.95%的一年低点。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.1% on Thursday, gaining 14bps in the last two sessions amid hawkish signals by the FOMC. The Federal Reserve cut its rates by 25bps yesterday, as expected, but Chairman Powell downplayed the certainty for another rate cut in December, reflecting policymakers' concern that core inflation has stubbornly remained above the 3% threshold. This was also echoed by Kansas City Fed's Schmid dissenting with a vote for a hold. Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet runoff will end at the start of December, rolling over the entirety of maturing Treasury securities and reinvesting its MBS assets into Treasury bills, aiming to temper recent stress in overnight funding markets. Rate futures continued to expect three additional rate cuts by July of next year. Earlier concerns of a slowing economy, the US government shutdown, and bets of a steady balance sheet for the Fed drove the 10-year yield to drop to a one-year low of 3.95% on October 22nd.

周四，标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，纳斯达克指数下跌1%，道琼斯指数下跌约70点，主要科技公司的业绩令人失望，而投资者继续消化鲍威尔主席的评论，担心12月降息并非板上钉钉。与此同时，特朗普总统和Xi总统的会晤结束时，美国将对中国进口商品的总体关税降低10%至47%，而北京承诺将非常努力地阻止芬太尼的流动，并增加对美国大豆的购买。Meta在预订了159.3亿美元的一次性税收相关费用后暴跌超过12%，投资者质疑其人工智能开发导致的资本支出增加。此外，MSF股价下跌超过1.5%，此前该公司报告称，其对OpenAI的投资使季度收益减少了31亿美元。另一方面，Alphabet在公布强于预期的盈利后上涨了2.6%，而礼来公司在提高全年收入指导后上涨了1%以上。苹果和亚马逊将于今天发布报告。

The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, the Nasdaq fell 1%, and the Dow lost about 70 points on Thursday, led by disappointing results from major tech companies, while investors continued to digest comments from Chair Powell, cautioing that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi concluded with the US lowering overall tariffs on Chinese imports by 10% to 47%, while Beijing pledged to work very hard to stop the flow of fentanyl and increase purchases of US soybeans. Meta tumbled over 12% after booking a $15.93B one-time tax related charge and as investors questioned increased capital expenditures due to its AI development. Also, MSF fell more than 1.5% after reporting that its OpenAI investment reduced quarterly earnings by $3.1B. On the other hand, Alphabet added 2.6% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings, while Eli Lilly gained more than 1% after raising its full-year revenue guidance. Apple and Amazon are set to report today.