周一，美国10年期国债收益率保持在4.42%以上，暂停了三个交易日的下跌，因为投资者关注贸易发展和即将到来的经济指标。美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克重申，8月1日是各国开始支付关税的“最后期限”，尽管谈判预计将继续进行。交易员们还展望了6月份领先指标的发布，这些指标提供了对未来经济状况的洞察。在政策方面，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒重申支持7月降息，指出劳动力市场疲软，通胀风险降低。他强调，关税带来的任何通胀影响都可能是短暂的，并表示通胀预期保持稳定，这给了美联储放松的灵活性。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held above 4.42% on Monday, pausing a three-session slide as investors focused on trade developments and upcoming economic indicators. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that August 1 is a "hard deadline" for countries to begin paying tariffs, though negotiations are expected to continue. Traders also looked ahead to the release of leading indicators for June, which provide insight into future economic conditions. On the policy front, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his backing for a July rate cut, pointing to a weakening labor market and subdued inflation risks. He emphasized that any inflationary effects from tariffs would likely be short-lived and said inflation expectations remain stable, giving the Fed flexibility to ease.

周一，美元指数徘徊在98.4左右，在连续两周上涨后保持稳定，因为市场关注关键的贸易和经济发展。商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克重申，8月1日是各国开始支付关税的“最后期限”，尽管他强调谈判将持续到那时。交易员们也在等待6月份的领先指标数据，该数据提供了对更广泛经济前景的洞察。在政策方面，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒重申支持7月份降息，指出劳动力市场疲软，通胀风险降低。他淡化了关税对通胀的影响，称其为暂时的，并表示没有迹象表明通胀预期正在上升，这给了美联储更多的放松空间。与此同时，在日本执政联盟在上议院选举中遭遇历史性失败后，美元兑日元汇率小幅下跌，加剧了政治不确定性。

The US dollar index hovered around 98.4 on Monday, holding steady after two consecutive weeks of gains, as markets focused on key trade and economic developments. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that August 1 is a "hard deadline" for countries to begin paying tariffs, though he emphasized that negotiations will continue until then. Traders also awaited the June reading of leading indicators, which offer insight into the broader economic outlook. On the policy front, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a rate cut in July, pointing to a weakening labor market and subdued inflation risks. He downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling it temporary, and said there are no signs that inflation expectations are rising, giving the Fed more room to ease. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly against the yen after Japan's ruling coalition suffered a historic defeat in the upper house election, fueling political uncertainty.

美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示，他相信美国和欧盟可以在8月1日之前达成贸易协议，他称这是新关税的“硬期限”。在接受哥伦比亚广播公司采访时，卢特尼克表示，有“很大的空间”达成协议，并表示乐观：“这是世界上最大的两个贸易伙伴……我相信我们会达成协议。”7月12日，在贸易谈判陷入僵局后，特朗普总统威胁要从8月1日开始对来自欧盟和墨西哥的进口商品征收30%的关税。他还致函其他合作伙伴，包括加拿大、日本和巴西，将关税定在20%至50%之间，其中铜关税为50%。卢特尼克证实，各国可以在8月1日之后继续谈判，但从该日起将面临关税。他还表示，预计特朗普可能会在明年重新谈判《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》（USMCA），但他指出，墨西哥和加拿大符合USMCA的商品目前仍免税。

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he was confident the U.S. and the EU could reach a trade deal before August 1, which he called a "hard deadline" for new tariffs. In an interview with CBS, Lutnick said there was “plenty of room” for agreement and expressed optimism: “These are the two biggest trading partners in the world... I am confident we’ll get a deal done.” On July 12, President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico starting August 1, following stalled trade talks. He also issued letters to other partners—including Canada, Japan, and Brazil—setting tariffs between 20% and 50%, including 50% on copper. Lutnick confirmed that countries could continue talks after August 1, but would face tariffs starting that date. He also said Trump is expected to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), likely next year, but noted that USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico and Canada remain exempt for now.

周一，美国股指期货保持稳定，交易员们正在为以Alphabet和特斯拉为首的繁忙的一周大型科技公司盈利做准备。今天晚些时候，Verizon、Domino's Pizza和Cleveland Cliffs等公司计划公布季度业绩。本财报季迄今为止，标普59家公司中有86%以上？根据FactSet的数据，500家公司的报告超出了预期。在商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克重申8月份的观点后，投资者也关注了贸易发展？1是关税支付的“硬截止日期”，同时为继续谈判敞开大门。上周，标普？500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨0.59%和1.51%，均创下历史新高，而道琼斯指数下跌0.07%。

US stock futures held steady on Monday as traders braced for a busy week of big-tech earnings, led by Alphabet and Tesla. Later today, Verizon, Domino’s Pizza and Cleveland-Cliffs are among the companies scheduled to release their quarterly results. So far this earnings season, more than 86% of the 59 S&P?500 firms that have reported have beaten expectations, according to FactSet. Investors also monitored trade developments after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reiterated that August?1 is a “hard deadline” for tariff payments, while leaving the door open for continued negotiations. Last week, the S&P?500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.59% and 1.51%, respectively, each reaching fresh all-time highs, while the Dow slipped 0.07%.