美国通胀加速但收入增长滞后。2月份，美联储首选的美国通胀指标——个人消费支出核心指数从2.6%加速至2.8%。这高于预期的2.7%，证实价格持续下跌的趋势还为时过早。

US Inflation Accelerates But Lags Income Growth.The Fed's preferred indicator of US inflation, the core index of personal consumption expenditure, accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8% in February. This is above the expected 2.7%, confirming that it is too early to see a sustained downward trend in prices.

美联储戴利：今年两次降息似乎“合理”。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利坚持认为，今年两次降息仍然是合理的预测，但随着经济指标强劲，政策制定者可以推迟降息，直到他们评估企业如何适应关税成本。

Fed's Daly: Two rate cuts this year seems “reasonable”.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly maintains that two rate cuts this year remain a reasonable projection, but with robust economic indicators, policymakers can hold off on reducing rates until they evaluate how businesses adapt to tariff costs.

密歇根大学对美国的消费者信心从初步的57.9下调至2025年3月的57，远低于2月份的64.7。消费者信心连续第三个月下降，达到2022年11月以来的最低水平，因为消费者对个人财务、商业状况、失业和通货膨胀的预期恶化。消费者继续担心在持续的经济政策发展中可能出现的痛苦。值得注意的是，三分之二的消费者预计未来一年失业率将上升，为2009年以来的最高水平。预期指数从初步的54.2降至52.6，创下2022年7月以来的最低水平。另一方面，当前状况指标从初步的63.5略微上调至63.8。与此同时，未来一年的通胀预期超过5%，为2022年11月以来的最高水平，初步估计高于4.9%。长期通胀预期也从3.9%上调至4.1%。

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 57 in March 2025 from a preliminary of 57.9, and well below 64.7 in February. Consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month to hit the lowest since November 2022 as consumer's expectations worsened for personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation. Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments. Notably, two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. The expectations index fell to 52.6 from a preliminary of 54.2 and hitting the lowest since July 2022. The current conditions gauge on the other hand, was revised slightly higher to 63.8 from a preliminary of 63.5. Meanwhile inflation expectations for the year ahead topped 5%, the highest since November 2022 and above 4.9% in the preliminary estimate. Long-run inflation expectations were also revised higher to 4.1% from 3.9%.

根据最终数据，密歇根大学编制的美国未来一年通胀预期在2025年3月连续第四个月上升至5%，为2022年10月以来的最高水平，略高于4.9%的初步读数。与此同时，3月份五年期展望也上调至4.1%，为1993年2月以来的最高水平，而初步读数为3.9%，高于2月份的3.5%。

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the University of Michigan, rose for the fourth straight month to 5% in March 2025, the steepest since October 2022, slightly above the preliminary reading of 4.9%, according to final figures. In the meantime, the five-year outlook was also revised up to 4.1% in March, the highest since February 1993, compared to the preliminary reading of 3.9% and above February's 3.5%.