美国零售销售会显示消费者退缩吗？。今天，美国3月零售销售和工业生产数据将于下午公布。市场将特别关注零售销售，这为特朗普关税生效后消费者行为的演变提供了确凿的证据。

Will US Retail Sales Show Consumers Retreating?.Today the US March retail sales and industrial production data is due for release in the afternoon. Markets will pay extremely close attention to especially retail sales, which provides hard evidence of how consumer behaviour has evolved after Trump's tariffs began to take effect.

不要指望鲍威尔会屈服于市场对支持降息的增长预期。前两个交易日缩短了复活节周，市场从上周的混乱中有所复苏。过去24小时左右的新闻流表明，风险反弹将面临严峻考验。

Don't Expect Powell to Cave to Market Expectations of Growth-Supporting Rate Cuts.The first two sessions of the trading-shortened Easter week developed orderly, with markets recovering somewhat from last week's mayhem. News flow of the last 24 hours or so suggests that the risk rebound will face a tough test.

风险情绪不稳定，美元再次承压。随着欧元和法郎几乎抹去了昨天的损失，美元再次看起来并不乐观。欧元/美元上涨0.6%，至1.1345，而美元/瑞士法郎下跌0.9%，至0.8150，有可能回落至周五和周一的低点。

Dollar comes under pressure again as risk mood gets unsettled.It's not looking good for the dollar again with both the euro and franc pretty much erasing losses from yesterday already. EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.1345 while USD/CHF is down 0.9% to 0.8150 levels and threatening to fall back to the Friday and Monday lows.

周三，美国10年期国债收益率在连续两个交易日下跌后稳定在4.33%左右，投资者正在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的关键讲话。市场参与者正在密切关注美联储计划如何应对以增长放缓风险和潜在关税驱动的通胀为特征的复杂环境的任何信号。增加不确定性的是，唐纳德·特朗普总统下令对所有关键矿产进口可能征收的新关税进行调查，这些矿产是美国从中国大量采购的商品，这引发了人们对贸易战加剧的新担忧。尽管特朗普呼吁重启谈判，但华盛顿和北京之间仍没有恢复谈判的迹象。投资者也在关注与其他主要美国合作伙伴的潜在贸易发展，以及今天晚些时候发布的3月份零售销售数据，这些数据可能会为消费者如何应对与贸易有关的不确定性提供见解。

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note held steady around 4.33% on Wednesday after sliding for two straight sessions, as investors awaited a key speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are watching closely for any signals on how the Fed plans to navigate a complex environment marked by slowing growth risks and potential tariff-driven inflation. Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump ordered a probe into possible new tariffs on all critical mineral imports—commodities the U.S. heavily sources from China—raising fresh concerns over an intensifying trade war. Despite Trump’s call for renewed negotiations, there remains no indication of talks resuming between Washington and Beijing. Investors are also keeping an eye on potential trade developments with other major U.S. partners and the release of March retail sales data later today, which may offer insights into how consumers are responding to rising trade-related uncertainty.