美联储决定前，美元指数上涨近99.50，等待鲍威尔的讲话。美元指数（DXY）追踪美元（USD）对一篮子六种主要货币的价值，在周三的欧洲时间交易在99.50左右，在前一交易日下跌超过0.50%后反弹。

US Dollar Index holds gains near 99.50 ahead of Fed decision, awaits Powell's remarks.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.50 during European hours on Wednesday, rebounding after losing over 0.50% in the previous session.

FOMC会议交易：欧元兑美元和美元兑日元的关键水平和分析。本周，金融市场热切关注即将到来的联邦公开市场委员会联邦基金利率决定、联邦公开市场委员声明以及随后的联邦公开银行委员会新闻发布会。由于市场预期和美联储对2025年剩余时间和2026年初的展望之间持续存在分歧，美国利率预测存在重大不确定性。

Trading the FOMC Meeting: Key Levels & Analysis for EURUSD and USDJPY.This week, financial markets are keenly focused on the upcoming FOMC Federal Funds Rate decision, the FOMC statement, and the subsequent FOMC press conference. Significant uncertainty surrounds US interest rate projections due to the ongoing divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's outlook for the remaining part of 2025 and early 2026.

人们普遍预计，美联储将在2025年5月连续第三次会议将联邦基金利率保持在4.25%-4.50%不变，因为政策制定者正在权衡通胀放缓与仍然有弹性的劳动力市场以及贸易政策的不确定性加剧。美国经济在第一季度出现收缩，国内生产总值以0.3%的年率萎缩，这主要是由于企业和消费者在预期的关税上调之前争相囤积商品，导致进口激增。尽管CPI和PCE等通胀指标继续显示价格压力缓解，劳动力市场保持稳定，但许多投资者预计未来几个月可能会出现疲软。交易员将密切关注美联储今年剩余时间的指导方针，尽管官员们在评估特朗普政府新贸易措施的全面影响时可能会保持谨慎、依赖数据的立场。市场目前预计7月、9月和10月将降息25个基点。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a third consecutive meeting in May 2025, as policymakers weigh slowing inflation against a still-resilient labor market and heightened uncertainty over trade policy. The US economy contracted in Q1, with GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of 0.3%, largely due to a surge in imports as businesses and consumers rushed to stockpile goods ahead of anticipated tariff increases. While inflation indicators, such as the CPI and PCE, continue to show easing price pressures, and the labor market remains solid, many investors anticipate potential softening in the months ahead. Traders will closely watch the Fed’s guidance for the remainder of the year, though officials are likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance as they assess the full impact of the Trump administration’s new trade measures. Markets are currently pricing in 25 basis point rate cuts in July, September, and October.

周三，随着投资者等待美联储的政策决定，10年期美国国债收益率保持在4.31%左右。尽管人们普遍预计美联储将保持利率不变，但市场将密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话，以寻找未来政策路径的信号，尤其是在降息的政治压力不断上升的情况下。然而，对特朗普关税可能推高通胀的担忧给前景蒙上了阴影。投资者还对美国财政部长Scott Bessent和贸易代表Jamieson Greer本周将在瑞士与中国同行会面讨论经贸事宜的报道做出了反应。这引发了人们对可能开始贸易谈判以降低两国征收的高额关税的乐观情绪。与此同时，在10年期国债拍卖表现稳健后，基准收益率周二下跌约5个基点，表明需求强劲。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.31% on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, markets will be closely watching Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for signals on the future policy path, particularly amid rising political pressure to lower rates. However, concerns that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher clouded the outlook. Investors also reacted to reports that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer would meet with their Chinese counterparts this week in Switzerland to discuss economic and trade matters. This raised optimism about a potential start to trade negotiations to lower hefty tariffs imposed by both countries. Meanwhile, the benchmark yield lost fell about 5 basis points on Tuesday following a solid auction for 10-year notes, indicating strong demand.