欧洲：在美联储的几周里，几十年的事情发生了。Gregor Stuart Hunter展望欧洲和全球市场的未来：

EUROPE There are Fed weeks where decades happen.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter:

美联储评论：利润微薄。联邦公开市场委员会降息25个基点的决定得到了比一些人担心的更强烈的共识的支持。除了Stephen Miran（他反对削减50个基点），所有选民都支持25个基点的举措。

Fed Review: Slim Margins.The FOMC's decision to cut rates by 25bp was backed by a stronger consensus than some perhaps feared. Aside from Stephen Miran (who dissented for a 50bp cut), all voters supported the 25bp move.

随着投资者消化美联储的政策前景，10年期美国国债收益率在上一交易日上涨约5个基点后，周四徘徊在4.07%附近。周三，美联储公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时暗示今年将再降息两次，但2026年只降息一次，这与明年降息两到三次的预测相反。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）发表了谨慎的言论，将此举描述为对劳动力市场疲软的“风险管理”，同时强调没有加快宽松政策的紧迫性。值得注意的是，新任命的州长Stephen Miran是唯一的反对者，他赞成更大幅度的50个基点的降息，导致分裂比预期的要少。

The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered near 4.07% on Thursday after rising about 5 basis points in the prior session, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point cut, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against forecasts for two or three cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note, framing the move as “risk management” in response to labor market softness, while stressing there is no urgency to accelerate easing. Notably, newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, favoring a larger 50 bps cut, leading to fewer splits than anticipated.

随着投资者重新评估美联储的政策前景，美元指数在上一交易日大幅反弹后，周四徘徊在97上方。周三，美联储公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时暗示今年将再降息两次，但2026年只降息一次，这与市场对明年降息两到三次的预期相悖。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）语气谨慎，将此举描述为劳动力市场疲软的“风险管理”，同时强调没有必要急于放松。值得注意的是，新任命的州长Stephen Miran是唯一的反对者，他支持更大幅度的50个基点的降息，导致分裂比预期的要少。在其他地方，加拿大银行也将利率下调了25个基点，而英格兰银行和日本银行预计本周将保持政策不变。

The dollar index hovered above 97 on Thursday after rebounding sharply in the prior session, as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. On Wednesday, the Fed delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, pushing back against market expectations for two or three cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, framing the move as “risk management” amid labor market weakness, while stressing there is no need to rush easing. Notably, newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, backing a larger 50 bps cut, resulting in fewer splits than anticipated. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada also trimmed rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to keep policy unchanged this week.