周四，美元指数在96.6左右几乎没有变化，徘徊在上周触及的两年高点附近，交易员们正在等待特朗普政策的更多细节，并继续对美联储不那么激进的降息进行定价。美联储理事鲍曼和库克周三发表的评论对美联储的未来走势没有提供多少明确的信息，其中一人表示对通货膨胀的持续担忧，而另一人则表示相信价格压力将继续减少。尽管如此，下个月基金利率下调25个基点的可能性仍在下降，目前保持在56%左右，远低于上周的83%。此外，俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突的持续升级增强了美元的避险吸引力。美元兑欧元和英镑上涨，但兑日元下跌。

The dollar index was little changed around 96.6 on Thursday, hovering close to two-year highs touched last week, as traders awaited more details on Trump's policies and continued to price in less aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed. Comments made on Wednesday by Fed governors Bowman and Cook provided scant clarity on the Fed’s future course, as one expressed ongoing worries about inflation while the other voiced confidence that price pressures would keep diminishing. Still, the odds for a 25bps reduction in the funds rate next month continue to fall, currently holding around 56%, well below 83% last week. Additionally, the ongoing escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict bolstered the dollar's safe-haven appeal. The greenback was gaining against the Euro and Pound but weakened against the Japanese yen.

周四，美国股指期货上涨，受英伟达上涨的推动，三大股指的合约上涨约0.5%。该公司的股价在盘前交易中上涨了近1.5%，扭转了早期的亏损，交易员们正在消化其季度业绩。英伟达的收益和收入超过了预期，但结果显示，与前几个季度相比有所放缓，本期的销售预测与一些更乐观的预测不符。在其他地方，随着比特币的上涨，MicroStrategy上涨了近14%，迪尔公司在盈利超过预期后上涨了约1.5%。另一方面，在发布保守指引后，Palo Alto的股价在盘前几小时下跌了约3%。PDD控股公司在收入下降后下跌了10%以上。与此同时，经济数据呈现出喜忧参半的局面。上周首次申请失业救济人数低于预期，表明劳动力市场仍然强劲，但费城联邦制造业指数意外跌至负值。

Stock futures in the US were higher on Thursday, with contracts on the three major averages adding about 0.5%, prompted by Nvidia gains. The company's shares were up nearly 1.5% in premarket trading, reversing early losses, as traders digest its quarterly results. Nvidia earnings and revenue topped forecasts but the results showed a slowdown from previous quarters and sales forecast for the current period didn’t match some of the more optimistic forecasts. Elsewhere, MicroStrategy jumped almost 14% as Bitcoin rallied and Deere & Company gained about 1.5% after an earnings beat. On the other hand, shares of Palo Alto lost about 3% in premarket hours after issuing a conservative guidance. PDD Holdings sank more than 10% after missing on revenue. Meanwhile, economic data painted a mixed picture. Initial claims came below forecasts last week, signalling the labour market remains strong but the Philly Fed Manufacturing index unexpectedly moved to negative territory.

周四，美国1年期国债收益率保持在4.4%以下，延续了11月早些时候触及的4.5%的回落，因为市场继续对安全需求的增加施加压力，而美联储的前景则不那么温和。乌克兰多次用西方制造的导弹袭击俄罗斯领土，引发了人们对更广泛军事升级的担忧，因为莫斯科重申了其促进使用原子武器的原则，促使投资者转向安全的国债和黄金。尽管如此，美联储基金期货价格继续显示，随着顽固的通货膨胀和越来越多的经济复苏证据加强了联邦公开市场委员会鹰派的论点，越来越多的市场已经减少了与美联储下个月降息相对应的头寸。根据最新数据，首次申请失业救济人数意外降至4月以来的最低水平。尽管如此，未决失业救济人数的增加与招聘人数的下降相一致。

The yield on the US 1-year Treasury note held below the 4.4% mark on Thursday, extending the pullback from 4.5% touched earlier in November as markets continued to weigh on heightened demand for safety against the outlook of less dovish Federal Reserve. Multiple Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western-made missiles stoked concerns of wider military escalation as Moscow renewed its doctrine to facilitate the use of atomic weapons, driving investors to pivot into safety in Treasury securities and gold. Still, Fed Funds futures prices continued to show that a growing portion of the market has reduced their positions corresponding to a Fed cut next month, as stubborn inflation and increased evidence of a resilient economy strengthen the argument for hawks in the FOMC. According to the latest data, initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest since April. Still, higher outstanding claims were in line with the drop in hiring.

美国费城联邦制造业指数从10月的10.3意外降至2024年11月的-5.5，远低于8的预测。这是自1月以来的第二次负面读数，表明该地区的制造业活动总体疲软。新订单指数（8.9对14.2）和出货量指数（4.5对7.4）有所下降，但仍为正值。就业指数转为正值（8.6比-2.2），表明整体就业有所增加。这两个价格指数都表明价格总体上涨，并保持在长期平均水平附近。与此同时，企业继续预计未来六个月的增长，增长预期达到2021年6月以来的最高水平（56.6比36.7）。

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US unexpectedly declined to -5.5 in November 2024 from 10.3 in October, and well below forecasts of 8. It is the second negative reading since January, in a sign manufacturing activity in the region softened overall. The indexes for new orders (8.9 vs 14.2) and shipments (4.5 vs 7.4) declined but remained positive. The employment index turned positive (8.6 vs -2.2), suggesting an increase in employment overall. Both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices and remain near their long-run averages. Meanwhile, firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, with growth expectations reaching the highest since June 2021 (56.6 vs 36.7).