美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，即将到来的“互惠”关税将从最低15%开始，在8月1日的最后期限之前提高新征税的下限。周三，他在华盛顿举行的人工智能峰会上发表讲话时表示，“我们将对15%至50%之间的任何一个国家征收直接、简单的关税”，并补充说，更高的税率适用于美国“相处得不太好”的国家。这些言论标志着向针对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴的更激进的关税政策的转变，除了少数有贸易协议的国家。周二，在东京同意取消对美国商品的限制并支持5500亿美元的投资基金后，特朗普宣布将对日本的25%关税降至15%。包括韩国、印度和欧盟成员国在内的其他国家仍在谈判协议，以避免更高的关税。特朗普指出，与欧盟的谈判是“严肃的”，并强调鉴于涉及的国家数量，需要一个更简单的关税制度。

U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that upcoming "reciprocal" tariffs would start at a minimum of 15%, raising the floor for new levies ahead of an August 1 deadline. Speaking at an AI summit in Washington Wednesday, he said, “We will have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15 percent and 50 percent,” adding that the higher rate applies to countries the U.S. hasn’t “been getting along with too well.” The comments mark a shift toward a more aggressive tariff policy aimed at nearly all U.S. trading partners, except a select few with trade deals. On Tuesday, Trump announced a reduction in a planned 25% tariff on Japan to 15% after Tokyo agreed to lift restrictions on U.S. goods and support a $550 billion investment fund. Other countries, including South Korea, India, and EU members, are still negotiating deals to avoid the higher tariffs. Trump noted talks with the EU were “serious” and emphasized the need for a simpler tariff system given the number of nations involved.

周四，随着对美联储领导层的担忧缓解，美国10年期国债收益率在前一交易日上涨后稳定在4.39%左右。财政部长Scott Bessent向市场保证，美联储主席Jerome Powell不需要辞职，尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统对他处理货币政策的方式不断提出批评。现在人们的注意力转向了美联储下周的政策会议，在全球关税的不确定性挥之不去的情况下，人们普遍预计利率将保持不变。与此同时，随着贸易进展的迹象改善了市场情绪，对避险资产的需求有所缓解。据报道，美国和欧盟正在推进一项协议的谈判，该协议包括对欧盟商品征收15%的基准关税，并可能豁免。贝森特还表示，美中关税休战可能会在8月12日到期之前延长。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady around 4.39% on Thursday, following gains in the previous session, as concerns over Federal Reserve leadership eased. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured markets that Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not need to resign, despite ongoing criticism from President Donald Trump over his handling of monetary policy. Attention now turns to the Fed’s policy meeting next week, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged amid lingering uncertainty around global tariffs. Meanwhile, demand for safe-haven assets eased as sentiment improved on signs of trade progress. The US and EU are reportedly advancing talks on a deal that includes a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods with potential exemptions. Bessent also indicated that the US-China tariff truce is likely to be extended ahead of its August 12 expiration.

周四，美元指数跌至97点，接近三周低点，因为与主要伙伴的贸易谈判取得进展，提振了竞争对手的货币。报告显示，美国和欧盟正在接近达成协议，讨论的重点是对欧盟商品征收15%的基准关税和可能的豁免。本周早些时候，日本同意对其对美国的出口征收类似的15%的关税，低于唐纳德·特朗普总统此前威胁的25%。此外，财政部长Scott Bessent表示，目前与中国的关税休战可能会延长至8月12日到期后，进一步改善风险情绪。这些发展支撑了欧元、日元和其他风险敏感资产的广泛反弹，给美元带来了压力。在政策方面，由于担心特朗普的关税可能引发通货膨胀，预计美联储将对进一步降息保持谨慎。

The US dollar index slipped toward 97 on Thursday, nearing a three-week low, as progress in trade talks with major partners lifted rival currencies. Reports indicated that the US and EU are moving closer to a deal, with discussions centered around a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions. Earlier this week, Japan agreed to a similar 15% tariff on its exports to the US, a reduction from the 25% previously threatened by President Donald Trump. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the current tariff truce with China is likely to be extended beyond its August 12 expiration, further improving risk sentiment. These developments supported a broad rally in the euro, yen, and other risk-sensitive assets, putting pressure on the dollar. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain cautious about additional rate cuts, amid concerns that Trump's tariffs could stoke inflation.

从美元泵假。自本月初以来，推动市场的一个主题是美元恢复了一些强势，这标志着许多货币对出现了一些顶部和底部。

Pump-Fake from US Dollar.One of the themes that had driven markets since the beginning of the month was the US Dollar recovering some strength which marked some tops and bottoms for many Currency pairs.