周四，10年期美国国债收益率跌至4.1%以下，因对增长的担忧和劳动力市场恶化的证据引发了人们对美联储今年再降息两次的押注。美国国会议员延长了持续的僵局，延长了政府停摆，冒着经济活动停止和公共裁员的风险。政府关门也可能导致美国劳工统计局明天发布就业报告，放大了本周降低10年期国债收益率的最近私人劳动力数据的悲观情绪。ADP追踪的工资自2020年第二季度新冠肺炎疫情冲击以来首次连续两个月下降。此外，JOLTS显示自愿辞职人数急剧下降，挑战者报告指出招聘放缓。这些数据巩固了美国劳动力市场大幅放缓的观点，这促使联邦公开市场委员会上个月重新启动了裁员周期。利率期货显示，尽管有证据表明通胀顽固，但市场对美联储今年又两次降息的定价。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 4.1% on Thursday as growth concerns and evidence of a deteriorating labor market raised bets of two more rate cuts by the Fed this year. Members of US Congress extended the ongoing impasse to prolong the government shutdown, risking a halt in economic activity and public job cuts. The shutdown also risks the release of the BLS jobs report tomorrow, magnifying the pessimism from recent private labor data that lowered the 10-year yield this week. Payrolls tracked by the ADP fell for two straight months for the first time since the Covid shock in Q2 2020. Also, the JOLTS showed a sharp decline in voluntary quits and the Challenger report pointed to slower hiring. The data consolidated the view of a significant slowdown in the US labor market, which drove the FOMC to restart its cutting cycle last month. Rate futures show that markets priced two more rate cuts this year by the Fed, despite evidence of stubborn inflation.