本周以美国消费者情绪和通胀前景结束。在美国，密歇根大学10月份的初步消费者信心调查将于今天下午发布，重点关注消费者的通胀预期。9月，1年期通胀预期仍高达4.8%，而5年期预期升至3.9%，均超过美联储的目标。

The Week Wraps Up with US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Outlook.In the US, the University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment survey is set for release this afternoon, with focus on consumers' inflation expectations. In September, 1-year inflation expectations remained elevated at 4.8%, while 5-year expectations rose to 3.9%, both exceeding the Fed's target.

美国劳工统计局召回休假员工以完成9月CPI报告-纽约时报。美国劳工统计局召回休假员工以完成9月CPI报告-纽约时报

US BLS recalls staff from furlough to complete the September CPI report – NY Times.US BLS recalls staff from furlough to complete the September CPI report – NY Times

美国劳工统计局召回工作人员完成CPI报告，优先考虑社会保障和美联储时间表。据《纽约时报》援引特朗普政府官员的话说，美国劳工统计局（BLS）正在召回有限数量的休假员工，以完成9月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。此举标志着尽管政府正在关闭，但仍努力确保关键通胀数据的公布。

US BLS recalls staff to finish CPI report, prioritising Social Security and Fed timelines.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling a limited number of employees from furlough to complete the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, according to a Trump administration official cited by The New York Times. The move marks an effort to ensure that key inflation data are published despite the ongoing government shutdown.

周五，美国10年期国债收益率保持在4.14%左右，本周结束时几乎没有变化，因为投资者在评估美联储的政策前景时权衡了政府长期停摆对经济的影响。在参议院未能达成融资协议后，政府停摆进入第九天，推迟了可能影响美联储下一步行动的关键经济数据。纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，他仍对再次降息持开放态度，尽管持续的通胀担忧可能会使这一决定复杂化。市场预计本月降息25个基点的可能性为95%，而12月降息的可能性从90%降至80%。与此同时，财政部最近一次10年期国债拍卖的需求受到抑制。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.14% on Friday and was poised to end the week little changed as investors weighed the economic fallout from the prolonged government shutdown while evaluating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The shutdown entered its ninth day after the Senate failed to reach a funding deal, delaying key economic data that could shape the Fed’s next move. New York Fed President John Williams said he remained open to another rate cut, though persistent inflation concerns could complicate the decision. Markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a quarter-point cut this month, while odds for a December move eased to 80% from 90%. Meanwhile, demand was subdued at the Treasury Department’s latest 10-year note auction.