美国股市周三延续纪录，科技股领涨，投资者在政府长期停摆的情况下分析美联储的最新会议纪要，寻找政策线索。标准普尔500指数上涨0.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.1%，受人工智能相关大型应用和芯片制造商的强劲推动，道琼斯指数收平。自本周初以来，AMD盘中上涨11.3%，涨幅超过40%，因为市场继续评估这家芯片生产商与OpenAI的交易，在一系列循环交易中，这家ChatGPT制造商的交易额超过1万亿美元。美光公司上涨5.9%，而英伟达、甲骨文和亚马逊各上涨2%以上。与此同时，投资者权衡了联邦公开市场委员会上次会议的纪要，证实该委员会今年将进一步降息以缓解脆弱的劳动力市场，尽管政策制定者仍将面临通胀加剧。与此同时，思科在为数据中心发布新的人工智能芯片方面上涨了2%。相反，消费者防御性股票和银行下跌。

US stocks extended their records on Wednesday, as technology shares led gains and investors parsed the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes for policy clues amid a prolonged government shutdown. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.1%, buoyed by strength in AI-linked megacaps and chipmakers, while the Dow finished flat. AMD rallied 11.3% on the session to gain over 40% since the start of the week as markets continued to assess the chip-producer’s deal with OpenAI, marking over $1 trillion for the ChatGPT maker in a series of circular deals. Micron jumped 5.9% while Nvidia, Oracle, and Amazon advanced over 2% each. Meanwhile, investors weighed the minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting confirmed that the group sees more rate cuts this year to alleviate a fragile labor market, although policymakers still head to elevated inflation. Meanwhile, Cisco advanced 2% on the release of a new AI chip for datacenters. Conversely, consumer defensive stocks and banks were lower.

DXY展望：尽管利率押注较低，但由于全球货币疲软，美元仍在攀升。尽管美联储发出降息信号，但美元指数在欧元和日元疲软的支撑下上涨。交易员关注98.714支撑位和99.060突破位。

DXY Outlook: Dollar Climbs Despite Lower Rate Bets, Boosted by Global Currency Weakness.Despite Fed rate cut signals, the U.S. dollar index rises, supported by euro and yen weakness. Traders focus on 98.714 support and 99.060 breakout levels.

周三，10年期美国国债收益率为4.1%，在第三个交易日仍处于窄幅区间，因为市场等待美国缺乏经济数据的进一步催化剂。由于国会陷入僵局，美国政府仍处于关闭状态，阻止了市场和美联储用于衡量经济的主要经济数据的发布。因此，MOVE指数保持在近四年低点，尽管联邦公开市场委员会上次会议的纪要表明，美联储今年应继续降息以应对劳动力市场日益脆弱的局面，最近ADP私人就业人数的连续收缩证明了这一点。尽管如此，委员会的一部分成员表示，随着通货膨胀率居高不下，他们对宽松政策持谨慎态度。对持续通胀和美元走弱的担忧促使外国市场从美元资产转向贵金属，这与10年期国债拍卖疲软相一致，导致收益率达到盘中高点。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was at 4.1% mark on Wednesday, remaining in a narrow range for the third session as markets awaited further catalysts on the lack of economic data from the US. The US government remained shut down as Congress held its impasse, preventing the release of major economic data used by markets and the Federal Reserve to gauge the economy. Consequently, the MOVE index held at near four-year lows even though minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting indicated the Fed should continue cutting rates this year to counter the labor market’s increasing fragility, recently evidenced by back-to-back contractions in ADP private payrolls. Still, a portion of the committee expressed caution on easing policy as inflation remains elevated. Concerns of sustained inflation and a weaker greenback drove foreign markets to pivot out of dollar assets into precious metals, aligned with the weaker auction for the 10-year note that sparked yields to trade at session highs.

美元指数连续第三个交易日上涨，周三升至98.9以上，为8月初以来的最高水平，受到其他主要货币疲软的支撑。美元兑日元走强最为明显，因为人们预计日本在新政府领导下将实施大规模财政刺激。它还对瑞士法郎和欧元上涨，后者受到法国持续政治动荡的压力。与此同时，联邦公开市场委员会最近一次会议的纪要显示，尽管对通胀的担忧持续存在，但美联储官员认为就业的下行风险正在增加。大约一半的政策制定者预计到2025年底将再降息两次。市场已经完全消化了本月晚些时候降息25个基点的可能性，而12月降息的可能性约为78%。与此同时，政府停摆已进入第二周。

The dollar index extended gains for a third consecutive session, rising above 98.9 on Wednesday to its highest level since early August, supported by weakness in other major currencies. The greenback strengthened most notably against the yen, amid expectations of large-scale fiscal stimulus in Japan under new government leadership. It also advanced against the Swiss franc and the euro, with the latter pressured by ongoing political turmoil in France. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials see increasing downside risks to employment, even as concerns about inflation persist. Around half of policymakers anticipated two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month, while the probability of a similar move in December stands at around 78%. Meanwhile, the government shutdown has entered its second week.