美元预测：9月联邦公开市场委员会降息似曾相识？2024年对比2025年。美联储刚刚实施了四年来的首次降息，选择了比往常更大的50个基点的降息幅度。鲍威尔主席将其描述为积极的“保险削减”，以防止劳动力条件降温，尽管失业率仍处于4.2%的低位，核心个人消费支出略高于央行2.7%的目标，但一些交易员怀疑是否需要采取这样的举措。

US Dollar Forecast: September FOMC Rate Cuts Déjà vu? 2024 vs. 2025.The Federal Reserve has just delivered its first rate cut in four years, opting for a larger than usual 50bp reduction. Chair Powell framed it as a proactive “insurance cut” to protect against cooling labor conditions, though with the unemployment rate at a still-low 4.2% and Core PCE slightly above the central bank's target at 2.7%, some traders are skeptical that such a move was needed.

下周全球利率前景仍将是焦点，包括鲍威尔主席在内的联邦公开市场委员会成员将发表重要讲话，跟进美联储最近的降息。市场和政策制定者将评估个人消费支出通胀、个人消费和支出的最新情况，以及第二季度GDP的最新估计，以获得对经济的重要见解。美国发布的其他重要数据包括耐用品订单、采购经理人指数、经常账户和新房销售。PMI也将成为印度、澳大利亚、日本、英国、德国、法国和欧元区的重点，而工业利润将来自中国。与此同时，中国、瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥正在等待货币政策决定。在地缘政治方面，世界各国领导人在全球政治动荡的时刻齐聚纽约参加联合国大会。

The outlook on global rates will remain the focus next week, with key speeches from FOMC members, including Chairman Powell, to follow up on the Fed's recent rate cut. Markets and policymakers will assess updates on PCE inflation, personal consumption and spending, and an updated Q2 GDP estimate for important insights on the economy. Other important US releases include durable goods orders, PMI readings, the current account, and new home sales. PMIs will also be the focus in India, Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the aggregate for the Eurozone, while industrial profits are due from China. In the meantime, monetary policy decisions are awaited in China, Switzerland, Sweden, and Mexico. On the geopolitical front, world leaders are convening in New York for the United Nations General Assembly at a turbulent moment for global politics.

联邦公开市场委员会后美元飙升改变全球市场——DXY展望。一个贯穿全年的主题是，美联储独立性受损，再加上美国更加孤立主义的政策（和去全球化），将如何使美元陷入混乱。

Post-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlook.A theme that had been building throughout this entire year was how a compromised Federal Reserve independence, combined with a more isolationist US policy (and de-globalization), would send the US dollar into shambles.

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US equities were higher on Friday, extending momentum after the three major benchmarks notched fresh record closes in the prior session. For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are each up 0.7%, while the Nasdaq has gained 1.5% so far, supported by the Fed’s first rate cut of the year and expectations of further easing in 2025. Traders also monitored a call between President Trump and President Xi for potential updates on trade negotiations. Meanwhile, a $5 trillion quarterly triple-witching options expiry takes place today, though volatility is expected to remain limited. Consumer discretionary, tech and communication services booked gains while the energy sector was the biggest laggard. On the corporate front, Apple shares rose about 1.4% as the iPhone 17 goes on sale. Amazon (0.6%), Tesla (2.1%) and Oracle (2.9%) were also higher and FedEx shares added 1% after its first-quarter results beat expectations.