截至2025年7月25日的一周，美国原油库存激增153.9万桶，大幅扭转了上周57.7万桶的下降趋势。这一意外的增长令市场感到意外，此前市场普遍预计油价将下跌250万桶。

US crude oil inventories surged by 1.539 million barrels in the week ending July 25, 2025, sharply reversing the previous week’s 577,000-barrel draw. The unexpected build surprised markets, which had widely anticipated a 2.5 million-barrel decline.

周二，美国三大股指收盘下跌，因美联储政策决定前企业盈利喜忧参半和谨慎态度打压市场情绪。标准普尔500指数在短暂触及盘中新高后下跌0.3%，纳斯达克100指数下跌0.2%，道琼斯指数下跌204点。联合健康公司（-7.5%）、波音公司（-4.4%）和默克公司（-1.7%）的疲软业绩拖累了市场，联合包裹服务公司和惠而浦公司在令人失望的收益和指导后也下跌了10%以上。投资者也消化了6月份职位空缺和招聘的下降，尽管7月份的消费者信心指数出人意料地上升。与此同时，美国和中国之间的贸易谈判在没有达成最终协议的情况下结束，人们寄希望于延长当前的关税休战。人们普遍预计美联储周三将保持利率不变，但在通胀放缓的迹象下，市场关注的是未来政策方向的信号。

The three major US indices closed in the red on Tuesday as mixed corporate earnings and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% after briefly hitting a new intraday high, while the Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.2% and Dow slipped 204 points. Weak results from UnitedHealth (-7.5%), Boeing (-4.4%), and Merck (-1.7%) dragged the market, with United Parcel Service and Whirlpool also slumping over 10% after disappointing earnings and guidance. Investors also digested a dip in job openings and hiring in June, though July’s consumer confidence reading surprised to the upside. Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and China wrapped up without a finalized deal, leaving hopes pinned on an extension to the current tariff truce. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but markets are focused on signals about future policy direction amid signs of moderating inflation.

周二，由于一系列悲观的盈利报告和对贸易动荡可能尚未结束的担忧，美国股市大幅下跌。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数在早盘交易中创下历史新高后徘徊在平线以下，而道琼斯指数下跌了150多点。开盘前，最大公司的盈利和指导发布倾向于悲观的一面，联合健康公司股价下跌超过5%，因为有人警告称其全年盈利可能低于预期，而默克公司尽管盈利好于预期，但仍下跌了3%。此外，由于关税可能损害其前景，UPS暴跌10%，波音公司在事件发生后下跌3%。在数据方面，职位空缺略低于本周启动一批新的劳动力市场更新的预期，尽管消费者信心指数略有上升。在贸易方面，美国延长了与中国的关税休战，但此举的高可能性阻碍了股市的积极反应。

US stocks swung mostly lower on Tuesday amid a batch of pessimistic earnings reports and concerns that trade turbulence may not have ended. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 hovered below the flatline after reaching records in morning trading, while the Dow fell more than 150 points. Earnings and guidance releases from the largest companies before the open were tilted toward the pessimistic side, with United Health sinking over 5% amid the warning that its full-year earnings are likely to be below expectations, while Merck lost 3% despite posting an earnings beat. Also, UPS plummeted 10% as tariffs are likely to hurt its outlook, and Boeing dropped 3% after its event. On the data front, job openings were slightly below expectations to kick off a batch of new labor market updates this week, although a consumer confidence gauge inched higher. On the trade front, the US extended its tariff truce with China, but the high likelihood of the move prevented a positive reaction for stocks.

边缘：美元月度高点，GDXJ月度低点…。根据标题，我们看到越来越多的证据表明趋势已经发生了变化。

On the Verge: Monthly Highs in USD, Monthly Lows in GDXJ….As per the title – we're seeing more and more confirmations that the trend has changed.