边缘：美元月度高点，GDXJ月度低点…。根据标题，我们看到越来越多的证据表明趋势已经发生了变化。

On the Verge: Monthly Highs in USD, Monthly Lows in GDXJ….As per the title – we're seeing more and more confirmations that the trend has changed.

欧美贸易协议踩下反弹的刹车，欧元多头退缩。欧元看涨者正面临欧盟与美国贸易协议对其信念的第一次重大考验，这使人们对2025年最受欢迎的交易之一的持久性产生了怀疑。

Euro bulls wince as US-EU trade deal slams the brakes on rally.Euro bulls are facing the first big test of their conviction in the form of the European Union's U.S. trade deal, which has cast doubt on the durability of one of 2025's most popular trades.

美国消费者信心指数升至97.2，但衰退信号依然存在。美国会议委员会7月份消费者信心指数从93.0升至97.2，超出预期的95.9。预期指数攀升4.5点，至74.4点，表明对未来状况的信心略有改善，但仍低于关键的80阈值，这一水平通常与迫在眉睫的衰退风险有关。

US consumer confidence rises to 97.2, but recession signal persists.US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 93.0 to 97.2 in July, beating expectations of 95.9. Expectations Index climbed 4.5 points to 74.4, signaling a slight improvement in sentiment about future conditions, but remained below the critical 80 threshold, a level typically associated with looming recession risk.

美联储可能为9月降息铺平道路。本周的核心事件是美联储会议，该会议有可能引发重大市场波动，并为未来几个月定下基调。尽管7月底几乎不可能降息，但投资者和交易员将密切关注信号，以评估9月政策放松的可能性。

Fed Likely to Pave the Way for a Rate Cut in September.The central event of the current week is the Fed meeting, which has the potential to create significant market movement and set the tone for the coming months. Although there is virtually no chance of a rate cut at the end of July, investors and traders will be closely watching for signals in an attempt to assess the likelihood of policy easing in September.