美元预测：由于关税风险和就业数据给市场带来压力，DXY在99.10附近挣扎。DXY稳定在99.10以上，但欧元走强、疲软的劳动力数据和贸易紧张局势对前景构成压力。关键支撑位可能很快就会受到考验。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market.DXY steadies above 99.10, but euro strength, weak labor data, and trade tensions weigh on outlook. Key support levels could soon be tested.

周二，美元指数保持在99.1以上，在近期下跌后有所回升，因为投资者消化了新的经济数据，并关注了全球贸易的最新情况。美国贸易数据显示，随着进口激增，3月份商品赤字跃升至创纪录的1620亿美元，远高于预期，这可能是由于企业和消费者在特朗普总统4月2日宣布的新关税生效之前急于购买商品。与此同时，4月份消费者信心连续第五个月下降至新冠肺炎疫情早期以来的最低水平，预期达到13年来的最低水平。3月份的职位空缺也比预期的要少。在贸易方面，财政部长贝森特称中国的关税“对中国来说是不可持续的”，并指出美国“非常接近”与印度达成贸易协议。展望未来，投资者正在等待周三公布的第一季度GDP和美联储首选的个人消费支出通胀指标，以及周五公布的4月份就业报告。

The dollar index held above 99.1 on Tuesday, recovering some ground after recent losses as investors digested fresh economic data and watched for updates on global trade. U.S. trade data showed the goods deficit jumped to a record $162 billion in March, well above forecasts, as imports surged—likely due to businesses and consumers rushing to buy goods before new tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2nd took effect. Meanwhile, consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month in April to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, with expectations hitting a 13-year low. Job openings also declined more than expected in March. On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Bessent described Chinese tariffs as “unsustainable for China” and noted that the U.S. was “very close” to securing a trade deal with India. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting Q1 GDP and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge on Wednesday, followed by the April jobs report on Friday.

周二，10年期美国国债收益率低于4.2%，为三周来的最低水平，因为不断恶化的宏观经济背景加强了人们对美联储今年可能被迫多次降息的押注。JOLTS显示，3月份美国经济有719万个职位空缺，远低于748万个的预期，以挑战其他表明劳动力市场强劲的劳动力报告。与此同时，领先指标继续显示，经济政策的不确定性持续压力情绪，CB调查显示悲观情绪急剧上升。利率期货反映出，尽管美联储警告称关税可能会对美国商品和服务造成通胀，但市场今年仍将降息100个基点。与此同时，美国财政部第二季度借贷计划的增幅超出预期，与特朗普政府赤字下降的信号形成鲜明对比。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was below the 4.2% mark on Tuesday, the lowest in three weeks, as the worsening macroeconomic backdrop strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve may be forced to deliver multiple rate cuts this year. The JOLTS showed that the US economy had 7.19 million job openings in March, well below expectations of 7.48 million, to challenge other labor reports that suggest a robust labor market. In the meantime, the leading indicators continued to show that economic policy uncertainty continued pressure sentiment, with the CB survey pointing to an aggressive increase in pessimism. Rate futures reflect that the market has positioned for 100bps in cuts this year, despite the Fed's warning that tariffs may be inflationary for US goods and services. In the meantime, the US Treasury increased its Q2 borrowing plans by more than expected, contrasting sharply with their signals of lower deficits in the Trump administration.

美国消费者信心降至86，预期降至13年低点，表明经济衰退风险上升。美国会议委员会消费者信心指数连续第五个月从93.9降至86.0，低于预期的87.1。现状指数微跌0.9点，至113.5点。

US consumer confidence falls to 86, expectations slumps to 13-year low signaling rising recession risks.US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month from 93.9 to 86.0, missing expectations of 87.1. Present Situation Index dipped slightly by -0.9 points to 113.5.