16:01:02
美国 United States
预计美联储将在2025年10月的会议上将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，使目标区间达到3.75%-4.00%。此前，9月份也将进行类似的削减，将借贷成本降至2022年以来的最低水平。市场将密切关注12月的任何指导，尽管预计政策制定者不会提供重要的新见解。由于政府停摆，关键经济指标的发布被推迟，政策背景变得更加不确定。在有限的可用数据中，CPI报告显示，整体通胀率小幅上升至3%，而核心通胀率小幅下降至同一水平。ADP数据显示，在截至10月11日的4周内，私营部门平均每周增加14250个工作岗位，而芝加哥联邦储备银行的估计表明，9月份的失业率基本保持不变，为4.34%。此外，交易员预计联邦公开市场委员会将考虑停止从其6.6万亿美元的资产负债表中流出国债。
The Fed is expected to lower the federal funds rate by 25bps at its October 2025 meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. It would follow a similar cut in September, reducing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Markets will closely watch for any guidance for December, though policymakers are not expected to offer significant new insights. The policy backdrop has become more uncertain amid the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic indicators. Among the limited data available, the CPI report showed headline inflation inching up to 3%, while core inflation eased slightly to the same level. ADP data showed the private sector added an average of 14,250 jobs per week in the 4 weeks ending October 11, while a Chicago Fed estimate suggested that the September unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 4.34%. In addition, traders expect the FOMC to consider halting the runoff of Treasury securities from its $6.6 trillion balance sheet.
