密歇根大学消费者调查显示，2024年8月，美国未来一年的通胀预期连续第四个月降至2.7%，为2020年12月以来的最低水平，与初步估计相符，低于上月的2.8%。与此同时，8月份，五年期前景被确认为3.1%的近一年高点，高于上个月的3%。

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States eased for the fourth month to 2.7% in August 2024, the lowest since December 2020, matching the preliminary estimate, down from 2.8% in the prior month, the University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed. In the meantime, the five-year outlook was confirmed at a near one-year high of 3.1% in August, up from 3% in the previous month.

2024年9月，密歇根大学对美国的消费者信心从初步读数69上调至70.1，为五个月来的最高水平，超过了市场预期的69.3。当前经济状况指标从62.9上调至63.3，预期指数从73上调至74.4。未来一年的通胀预期从2.8%降至2.7%，而五年通胀前景从3%升至3.1%，两者均与此前的估计一致。

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 70.1 in September 2024, the highest in five month, from a preliminary reading of 69 and beating market expectations of 69.3. The current economic conditions gauge was revised higher to 63.3 from 62.9 and the expectations index was revised up to 74.4 from 73. Inflation expectations for the year-ahead fell to 2.7% from 2.8% while the five-year inflation outlook rose to 3.1% from 3%, both in line with earlier estimates.

美国股市周五走高，标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%，此前该指数创下前一轮收盘新高，道琼斯指数上涨140点，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%，交易员正在消化个人消费支出报告。个人消费支出和核心个人消费支出价格指数均小幅上涨0.1%，核心个人消费收入价格指数的涨幅低于0.2%的预测。与此同时，个人支出进一步放缓，而收入增长意外放缓。美联储11月再次降息50个基点的可能性从个人消费支出公布前的50%略有上升至53%。能源、公用事业和房地产是表现最好的行业，而科技股则处于亏损状态。本周，美国三大平均指数有望实现上涨，这得益于央行将进一步降低借贷成本的前景和中国的刺激计划。迄今为止，标准普尔500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨0.3%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.4%。

US stocks higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.2%, following a record close in the previous sesison, the Dow Jones adding 140 points and the Nasdaq rising 0.1%, as traders digest the PCE report. Both the PCE and the core PCE price index increased marginally by 0.1%, with the core one rising less than forecasts of 0.2%. At the same time, personal spending eased more while income growth unexpectedly eased. The odds for another 50bps rate cut by the Fed in November increased slightly to 53% from 50% before the PCE release. Energy, utilities and real estates were the top performing sectors while tech was in the red. On the week, the three major US averages are on track to book gains, buoyed by prospects central banks will lower borrowing costs further and China's stimulus announcements. The S&P 500 is up 0.8%, the Dow Jones rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq gained 1.4% so far.

周五，美元跌至100.3，接近2023年7月的最低点，此前关键经济数据表明经济降温，并强化了对美联储进一步降息的预期。美联储首选的通胀指标核心个人消费支出在8月份仅上涨0.1%，低于0.2%的预测，而2.7%的年增长率与预期相符。经通胀调整的消费者支出微涨0.1%。周四，每周申请失业救济人数创下四个月新低，表明劳动力市场具有弹性。第二季度GDP增长率为3%，第一季度和2023年和2022年全年增长率上调。此外，8月份耐用品订单持平，超出了2.6%下降的预期。市场对美联储是在11月降息50个基点，还是选择小幅降息25个基点仍存在分歧。

The dollar fell to 100.3 on Friday, nearing lows last seen in July 2023, after key economic data signaled a cooling economy and reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose just 0.1% in August, below the 0.2% forecast, while the annual increase of 2.7% matched estimates. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up 0.1%. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims hit a four-month low, pointing to a resilient labor market. GDP growth was confirmed at 3% for Q2, with Q1 and full-year growth for 2023 and 2022 revised higher. Additionally, durable goods orders were flat in August, defying expectations of a 2.6% decline. Markets remain split on whether the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in November or opt for a smaller 25 bps reduction.