市场评估美联储政策前景，美元反弹略有缓和。周四，美元（USD）在美国数据发布更加繁忙的一天之前略有走弱，10月份的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据是主要事件。周四早些时候，欧洲PMI指数喜忧参半，法国各行业进一步收缩，德国公布的数据好于预期。

US Dollar rally eases slightly as markets assess Fed policy outlook.The US Dollar (USD) weakens slightly on Thursday ahead of a more busy day in terms of  US data releases, with the Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) data for October as the main event. Earlier on Thursday, the European PMIs came in mixed, with France contracting further in all sectors and Germany posting better-than-expected readings.

周四，10年期美国国债收益率四天来首次下跌至4.2%，略低于本周早些时候触及的三个月高点，因为全球借贷成本的反弹似乎已经停止。交易员一直在押注，在强劲的经济数据、赤字担忧和总统选举的不确定性之后，美联储不会像最初预期的那样大幅降息。几位美联储官员的评论强化了这种预期。今年联邦基金利率进一步下调50个基点的可能性已从上周的近72%降至68%左右

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell for the first time in four days to 4.2% on Thursday, retreating slightly from three-month highs touched early in the week, as the global rally in borrowing costs apparently came to a halt. Traders have been betting the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as aggressively as initially expected, following strong economic data, deficit worries, and uncertainty regarding the Presidential election. Comments from several Fed officials have reinforced such expectations. The odds for additional 50bps reduction in the fed funds rate this year have lowered to around 68% from nearly 72% last week

美元躲过褐皮书子弹–ING。此前发布的褐皮书警告称，美联储12个地区中有9个地区的活动持平或下降，被认为促使美联储在9月份降息50个基点。ING的Chris Turner指出，昨晚为11月7日联邦公开市场委员会会议准备的发布报告显示，几乎所有地区的活动都保持稳定，有两个地区出现了扩张。

USD: Dollar dodges Beige Book bullet – ING.The previous release of the Beige Book warned that nine of the Fed's 12 districts saw flat or declining activity and was thought to have prompted the 50bp Fed cut in September. Well, last night's release, prepared for the 7 November FOMC meeting, reported stable activity in nearly all districts, with two districts showing expansion, ING's Chris Turner notes.

周四，美元指数最近反弹至104.4左右，徘徊在近三个月来的最高水平，因为人们越来越期望美联储在进一步降息时会更加谨慎，前总统唐纳德·特朗普重新入主白宫的可能性也越来越大。美元也受到美国国债收益率上升的支撑，基准10年期国债周三达到4.26%的盘中高点。这些举措出台之际，美国强劲的就业、消费者通胀和零售销售数据表明经济仍然强劲。美联储的施密德本周表示，他不希望采取过大的举措，而美联储的哈克则呼吁采取更温和的方法来进一步放松。在政治方面，市场押注特朗普可能会在11月获胜，鉴于他的通胀政策，如提高关税和降低税收，这对美元和国债收益率来说是一个看涨的情景。美元兑日元攀升至三个月高点，兑欧元攀升至四个月高点。

The dollar index held its recent rally to around 104.4 on Thursday, hovering at its highest levels in almost three months on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in cutting interest rates further and rising odds that former President Donald Trump will retake the White House. The greenback was also underpinned by rising Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note reaching an intraday high of 4.26% on Wednesday. Those moves came as strong US jobs, consumer inflation and retail sales data indicated a still robust economy. Fed’s Schmid said this week he would not prefer outsized moves, while Fed’s Harker called for a more moderate approach to further easing. On the political front, markets are betting that Trump will likely win in November, a bullish scenario for the dollar and Treasury yields given his inflationary policies such as higher tariffs and lower taxes. The dollar climbed to a three-month high on the yen and a four-month high on the euro.