美元预测：DXY跌破50日均线，美联储根据个人消费支出数据降息的可能性达到87%。美元跌破50天平均水平，核心个人消费支出达到2.9%，降息押注增加。市场关注美联储和下一步行动的政治压力。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Slips Below 50-Day MA as Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 87% on PCE Data.US dollar slips below 50-day average as core PCE hits 2.9% and rate cut bets rise. Market watches Fed and political pressure for next move.

每周底线：美国-特朗普总统对美联储施加进一步压力。第二季度实际GDP增长被上调至3.3%，其中大部分上调来自更强劲的商业投资。

The Weekly Bottom Line: U.S. – President Trumps Applies Further Pressure on Fed.Real GDP growth for the second quarter was revised higher to 3.3%, with most of the upward revision stemming from stronger business investment.

美国股市周五收跌，标普500指数从历史高点回落，美国经济持续通胀的迹象持续存在。标准普尔500指数下跌0.6%，纳斯达克指数下跌1.2%，道琼斯指数下跌92点，跌幅0.2%。核心个人消费支出是美联储首选的通胀指标，7月份同比增长2.9%，与预期相符，但标志着自2月以来最快的增长。科技和人工智能相关股票给市场带来压力，由于竞争和人工智能产品成本上升，英伟达下跌3.4%，戴尔下跌8.9%。阿里巴巴因强劲的云计算业绩飙升12.9%，而卡特彼勒（-3.6%）和Marvell（-18.6%）因关税和收入担忧而下跌。尽管周五出现下跌，但标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数连续第四个月上涨，分别上涨2%和3%，纳斯达克指数连续第五个月上涨1%。为庆祝劳动节，市场将于周一休市。

US stocks ended lower on Friday as the S&P 500 retreated from from record highs, amid ongoing signs of persistent inflation in the US economy. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.2%, and the Dow lost 92 points, or 0.2%. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.9% year-over-year in July, matching expectations but marking the fastest increase since February. Tech and AI-related shares pressured the market, with Nvidia down 3.4% and Dell falling 8.9% due to competition and higher costs for AI products. Alibaba surged 12.9% on strong cloud computing results, while Caterpillar (-3.6%) and Marvell (-18.6%) declined on tariff and revenue concerns. Despite Friday’s losses, the S&P 500 and Dow recorded their fourth consecutive month of gains, up 2% and 3% respectively, and the Nasdaq posted a fifth straight monthly rise, adding 1%. Markets will be closed Monday in observance of Labor Day.

美联储的戴利重申，很快将是重新调整政策的时候了。有趣的是，他们如何避免使用“暂时性”这个词。无论如何，美联储的戴利只是重申，她预计关税驱动的通货膨胀将是短暂的，因此赞成降低利率以帮助劳动力市场，在她看来，劳动力市场正在放缓。

Fed's Daly repeats that it will soon be time to recalibrate policy.It's funny how they avoid using the word "transitory". Anyway, Fed's Daly is just repeating that she expects the tariff-driven inflation to be short-lived and therefore favours lowering interest rates to help the labour market which in her view is slowing.