英国预算预测者表示，他们过于乐观，给里夫斯带来了风险。英国官方预算监督机构周二表示，它对该国的经济增长前景过于乐观，这增加了其预测下调的可能性，这将对财政部长雷切尔·里夫斯造成打击。

UK budget forecasters say they have been too upbeat, posing a risk for Reeves.Britain's official budget watchdog said on Tuesday that it had been too optimistic about the country's economic growth outlook, raising the prospect of a downgrade of its forecasts which would be a blow to finance minister Rachel Reeves.

英镑在1.371美元附近保持稳定，接近2021年10月以来的最高点，这得益于英格兰银行（BoE）与欧洲央行等同行相比采取的谨慎态度。英国通胀率仍顽固高于英国央行2%的目标，5月份达到3.4%，远高于欧元区6月份的2%。与此同时，经济增长仍然疲软，由于全球贸易关税和国内税收上调，英国经济在4月份急剧萎缩。英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利指出，通货膨胀是由管理价格驱动的，并承认经济和劳动力市场出现了一些疲软。他表示，利率可能呈下降趋势，经济学家预计8月份将降息25个基点，将基准利率从4.25%降至4%。人们的注意力还集中在一项关键的福利改革投票上，因为总理基尔·斯塔默在党内反对的情况下缩减了福利削减。

The British pound held steady near $1.371, close to its highest since October 2021, supported by the Bank of England’s (BoE) cautious approach compared to peers like the ECB. UK inflation remains stubbornly above the BoE’s 2% target, reaching 3.4% in May, well above the euro zone’s 2% in June. Meanwhile, economic growth remains weak, with the UK economy contracting sharply in April due to global trade tariffs and domestic tax hikes. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted inflation is driven by administered prices and acknowledged some economic and labor market softening. He indicated interest rates are likely to trend downward, with economists expecting a 25 basis point cut in August, lowering the base rate from 4.25% to 4%. Attention also focuses on a key welfare reform vote, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer scaled back benefit cuts amid party opposition.

富时100指数在今年上半年强劲上涨7.2%后，周二小幅上涨。据《泰晤士报》报道，阿斯利康股价上涨近3%，此前有报道称，该公司首席执行官帕斯卡尔·索里奥特（Pascal Soriot）私下表示，希望将公司的股票上市地迁至美国，并可能搬迁其住所。英格兰银行行长Andrew Bailey评论称，英国通胀完全是由管理价格驱动的，同时表明经济和劳动力市场有所疲软。数据还显示，商店价格近一年来首次上涨。Bailey指出，利率可能呈下降趋势，这可能会缓解借款人的压力。与此同时，据全国统计，英国房价下跌，议员们准备在当晚晚些时候就政府福利支出削减法案进行投票。

The FTSE 100 edged higher on Tuesday after a strong 7.2% rise in the first half of the year. AstraZeneca gained nearly 3% following reports that CEO Pascal Soriot has privately expressed a preference to move the company’s stock listing to the US and possibly relocate its domicile, according to The Times. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey commented that UK inflation is driven entirely by administered prices, while signaling some economic and labor market softening. Data also showed shop prices rose for the first time in nearly a year. Bailey noted that interest rates are likely to trend downward, which may ease pressure on borrowers. Meanwhile, UK house prices fell, per Nationwide, and MPs prepared to vote on a government welfare spending cut bill later that evening.

英国10年期国债收益率跌至4.455%，为9周低点，此前英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利在辛特拉的一个小组会议上发表了鸽派言论。Bailey表示，利率的方向是“向下”，随着时间的推移，限制性政策将逐渐向“更中性”的立场转变，尽管最终利率仍存在不确定性。他指出，英国通胀主要是由管理价格驱动的，并不反映供需失衡，同时也指出了经济和劳动力市场疲软的早期迹象。交易员现在预计9月份将降息25个基点。尽管如此，英国央行在宽松政策方面仍比欧洲央行等同行更加谨慎。在国内，人们的注意力转向了一项关键的福利改革投票，这可能会考验工党政府的团结。总理基尔·斯塔默在面临党内强烈反对后，缩减了拟议的福利削减，该党将自己定位为福利国家的捍卫者。

The UK 10-year gilt yield dropped to 4.455%, a nine-week low, following dovish comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at a panel in Sintra. Bailey said the direction for interest rates is "downwards" and that restrictiveness will ease toward a "more neutral" stance over time, though uncertainty remains about the terminal rate. He noted UK inflation is largely driven by administered prices and not reflective of supply-demand imbalances, while also pointing to early signs of economic and labor market softening. Traders now expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Despite this, the BoE remains more cautious than peers like the ECB in easing policy. Domestically, attention turned to a key welfare reform vote that could test the Labour government's unity. Prime Minister Keir Starmer scaled back proposed benefit cuts after facing strong opposition from within his party, which positions itself as a defender of the welfare state.