英国10年期国债收益率从8月19日的三个月高点4.7456%跌至4.7%以下，市场权衡了鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔言论和最新通胀数据。鲍威尔暗示美联储可能降息，理由是就业和价格之间的风险转移，尽管关税仍然是一个通胀问题。在英国，7月份的通胀率高于预期，为3.8%，抑制了人们对英格兰银行近期进一步降息的预期。市场现在认为，银行利率在12月保持在4%的可能性为57%，到2026年底降至3.5%的可能性更大。在秋季预算之前，借贷成本的上升给财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯带来了压力，这可能需要储蓄或增税。与此同时，预计欧洲央行将保持在2%，有效地结束了其宽松周期。

The yield on the UK 10-year gilt fell to below 4.7% from a three-month high of 4.7456% on August 19, as markets weighed Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks and the latest inflation data. Powell signaled possible Fed rate cuts, citing shifting risks between jobs and prices, though tariffs remain an inflation concern. In the UK, July inflation came in hotter-than-expected at 3.8%, curbing expectations for further near-term rate cuts by the Bank of England. Markets now price a 57% chance the Bank Rate stays at 4% through December, with odds favoring a cut to 3.5% by end-2026. Elevated borrowing costs add pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the autumn budget, which may require savings or tax hikes. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to hold at 2%, effectively ending its easing cycle.