斯特林对英国商业活动疲软不屑一顾。周三，英镑兑美元汇率从早盘下跌中回升，抵消了数据显示的英国商业活动因全球贸易紧张局势而出现两年多来最大幅度疲软的影响。

Sterling shrugs off weaker UK business activity.Sterling recovered from early losses against the dollar on Wednesday, brushing off data showing UK business activity weakened by the most in more than two years due to global trade tensions.

10年期英国国债收益率跌至4.5%，延续了从4月10日触及的近三个月高点4.8%的回落，当时债券供应向下调整，宏观经济背景有利于英格兰银行降低利率。英国债务管理办公室将新的长期债券发行量从计划的400亿英镑削减至298亿英镑，将较长期限债券在总销售额中的份额降至10%。此举放大了英国央行本月根据其量化紧缩计划停止出售长期国债的决定的影响，此前政府借贷增加和美国国债下跌推高了国内收益率。反过来，PMI数据显示，由于美国的关税已经阻碍了英国的供应线，私营部门活动在一年半以来首次意外收缩。此外，最新的通胀数据低于预期，为英国央行今年继续降息铺平了道路。

The yield on the 10-year Gilt dropped toward the 4.5% mark, extending the pullback from the near three-month-high of 4.8% touched on April 10th amid a downward revision to bond supply and a macroeconomic backdrop that favors lower interest rates by the Bank of England. The UK's Debt Management Office cut the issuance of new long-dated bond sales to £29.8 billion from the £40 billion that were planned, reducing the share of longer maturities in total sales to 10%. The move magnified the impact of the BoE's decision to halt the sale of long-Gilts this month under its quantitative tightening program after greater government borrowing and the slide in US Treasuries lifted domestic yields. In turn, PMI figures suggested private sector activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in one-an-a-half years as tariffs from the US already hampered British supply lines. Also, the latest inflation data was softer than expected, paving the way for the BoE to continue cutting rates this year.

英镑/日元价格预测：反弹至189.00，因情绪风险抵消了英国PMI的走弱。英镑/日元交叉盘从190.00心理关口附近回落，即本周三早些时候触及的两周高点。日内抛售步伐加快，以应对令人失望的英国PMI，并将现货价格拉至欧洲上半年188.25左右的每日新低。

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds to 189.00 as risk-on mood offsets weaker UK PMIs.The GBP/JPY cross retreats from the vicinity of the 190.00 psychological mark, or over a two-week top touched earlier this Wednesday. The intraday selling picks up pace in reaction to disappointing UK PMIs and drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, around the 188.25 region during the first half of the European session.

标准普尔全球闪存英国制造业采购经理人指数从3月份的44.9降至2025年4月的44，与市场预期相符。该数据表明，制造业再次出现收缩，这是自2023年8月以来最严重的收缩，因为国际市场需求疲软对商业活动造成了压力。制造商的产量连续第六个月下降，这是自2022年8月以来的最大降幅，普遍归因于市场状况疲软，特别是在主要出口目的地。制造业出口销售受到全球贸易紧张局势加剧的严重打击。除疫情外，制造业海外新订单的最新下降幅度是2009年2月以来最大的。此外，就业人数继续下降，出厂价格通胀加速，公司大多以国家保险缴款增加和国家生活工资上涨为理由。最后，商业活动预期大幅减弱。

The S&P Global Flash UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 44 in April 2025 from 44.9 in March, matching market expectations. The reading pointed to another contraction in the manufacturing sector and the deepest since August 2023, as weaker demand from international markets weighed on business activity. Manufacturers recorded a fall in production volumes for the sixth successive month, and the steepest since August 2022 and widely attributed to weakening market conditions, especially in key export destinations. Manufacturing export sales were particularly hard-hit by rising global trade tensions. Aside from the pandemic, the latest decline in new orders from abroad across the manufacturing sector was the steepest since February 2009. In addition, employment continued to fall and factory gate price inflation accelerated, with companies mostly citing higher National Insurance contributions and a rise in the National Living Wage. Finally, business activity expectations weakened considerably.