由于关税和政治不确定性损害了日元，英镑/日元接近年初至今的高点199.80。由于关税和政治不确定性损害了日元，英镑/日元接近年初至今的高点199.80

GBP/JPY nears YTD highs at 199.80 as tariffs, political uncertainty hurt the Yen.GBP/JPY nears YTD highs at 199.80 as tariffs, political uncertainty hurt the Yen

周四，富时100指数上涨0.3%，此前欧洲股市上涨，投资者处理了最新的英国就业数据。英国国家统计局官员利兹·麦基翁指出，劳动力市场正在走弱，工资数字再次下降，尽管修订后的税收数据表明，下降幅度没有以前想象的那么严重。英国工资增长超出预期，失业率上升至4.7%。在企业新闻方面，易捷航空股价下跌超过7%，此前该公司警告称，收益将受到法国空中交通管制罢工和燃料成本上涨的影响。杰富瑞的分析师将利润预期下调了5.5%。尽管面临挑战，易捷航空公布了第三季度利润增长，并预计全年增长，但由于消费者趋势的转变，它仍然依赖于夏末的预订。

The FTSE 100 rose 0.3% on Thursday, following gains across European markets as investors processed the latest UK jobs data. ONS official Liz McKeown noted the labour market is weakening, with payroll numbers falling again, although revised tax data suggests the decline is less severe than previously thought. UK wages grew by more than expected and unemployment ticked up to 4.7%. In corporate news, EasyJet shares fell more than 7% after warning that earnings would be impacted by French air traffic control strikes and rising fuel costs. Analysts at Jefferies cut their profit forecast by 5.5%. Despite challenges, EasyJet posted a Q3 profit rise and expects full-year growth, though it remains dependent on late summer bookings due to shifting consumer trends.

英镑兑美元汇率在1.339美元左右，接近八周低点，主要原因是美元再次走强。美元升至三周高点，此前特朗普总统表示，尽管批评美联储降息速度太慢，但他没有计划解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。在英国，投资者正在权衡最近的就业和通胀数据，以寻找货币政策的线索。劳动力市场继续疲软，工资就业再次下降，尽管修订后的税收数据表明，下降幅度没有以前想象的那么严重。失业率上升至4.7%，而工资增长——尽管仍处于历史高位——显示出放缓的迹象。与此同时，6月份的通货膨胀率出人意料地上升，为3.6%，而预测为3.4%。混合信号给英格兰银行带来了不确定性。工资增长放缓支持潜在的降息，但粘性通胀可能会推迟降息。交易员们略微降低了预期，但仍将在2025年进行两次降价。

The British pound traded around $1.339, near an eight-week low, mainly due to renewed strength in the US dollar. The dollar rose to a three-week high after President Trump said he had no plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite criticizing the Fed for being too slow to cut interest rates. In the UK, investors are weighing recent jobs and inflation data for clues on monetary policy. The labour market continues to soften, with payroll employment falling again, though revised tax data suggests the decline is less severe than previously thought. Unemployment rose to 4.7%, while wage growth—though still historically strong—showed signs of slowing. Meanwhile, inflation surprised to the upside in June, coming in at 3.6% versus a 3.4% forecast. The mixed signals create uncertainty for the Bank of England. Slower wage growth supports potential rate cuts, but sticky inflation could delay them. Traders have slightly scaled back expectations but still price in two cuts in 2025.

英国10年期国债收益率攀升至4.668%，为六周多来的最高水平，此前劳动力市场数据喜忧参半。根据英国国家统计局的数据，就业人数再次下降，表明劳动力市场持续疲软。然而，对过去税收数据的修订表明，最近的下降没有以前想象的那么严重。失业率微升至4.7%，而不包括奖金的工资增长仍强于预期，但显示出放缓的迹象。职位空缺也延续了三年来的下降趋势。总体而言，尽管工资压力挥之不去，但数据突显出劳动力市场正在降温。就在一天前，6月份的通胀率意外上升至3.6%，高于3.4%的预测。通胀率居高不下和就业市场疲软的结合为英国央行创造了复杂的背景。虽然工资增长放缓支持降息，但粘性通胀可能会推迟降息。交易员们略微降低了预期，但仍预计2025年将再降息两次。

The UK 10-year gilt yield climbed to 4.668%, the highest in over six weeks, after mixed labour market data. According to the ONS, the number of employees on payrolls fell again, indicating continued labour market weakness. However, revisions to past tax data suggest recent declines were less severe than previously thought. Unemployment edged up to 4.7%, while wage growth excluding bonuses remained stronger than expected but showed signs of slowing. Job vacancies also continued their three-year decline. Overall, the data highlights a cooling labour market, despite lingering wage pressures. This comes just a day after June inflation surprised to the upside at 3.6%, above the 3.4% forecast. The combination of a still-elevated inflation rate and a weakening job market creates a complex backdrop for the BoE. While the slowing wage growth supports the case for rate cuts, the sticky inflation may delay them. Traders have slightly reduced expectations but still see two more cuts in 2025.