英国CPI公布后，交易员在5月会议上加大了对英国央行降息的押注。在低于预期的英国CPI数据之后，交易员从预期没有变化转变为在5月份的英国央行会议上定价更有可能下调25个基点。

Traders increase bets for BoE rate cut at the May meeting after the UK CPI release.Following the lower than expected UK CPI figures, traders went from expecting no change to pricing in higher chances of a 25 bps cut at the May's BoE meeting.

英镑：紧缩财政，宽松货币政策打击英镑——ING。英国财政大臣Rachel Reeves在13CET发表了30分钟的春季演讲。故事的关键在于她将如何削减英国的支出以满足其财政规则。

GBP: Tighter fiscal, looser monetary policy to hit sterling – ING.UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, delivers her 30-minute Spring Statement at 13CET. The crux of the story is how she will likely cut spending for the UK to meet its fiscal rule.

英镑小幅下跌至1.29美元左右，交易员消化了低于预期的通胀数据，并等待春季报告。英国2月份的年通货膨胀率降至2.8%，低于预测的2.9%，但与英格兰银行的预测一致。服务业通胀稳定在5%。然而，这种下降预计是暂时的，央行预计今年晚些时候通货膨胀率将升至4%。市场目前预计，英国央行8月份降息25个基点的可能性为92%，年底前再次降息的可能性约为60%。与此同时，英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯将公布经济前景，并宣布大幅削减英国政府支出，总计数十亿英镑。

The British pound edged down slightly to around $1.29 as traders digested a weaker-than-expected inflation reading and awaited the Spring Statement. The UK's annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% in February, below the forecasted 2.9% but in line with the Bank of England's projections. Services inflation remained steady at 5%. However, the decline is expected to be temporary, with the central bank anticipating inflation to rise toward 4% later this year. Markets currently price in a 92% probability of a 25bps rate cut by the BoE in August and around a 60% chance of a second reduction before year-end. Meanwhile, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is set to present the economic outlook and announce significant cuts to UK government spending, amounting to billions of pounds.

英国通胀降温后英镑走软，但前景依然充满挑战。有线电视现在跌至1.2908，当天下跌0.3%，此前英国CPI报告疲软。在通胀数据公布之前，该货币对的交易价格约为1.2940，交易员预计5月份降息的可能性约为45%。

Sterling eases after cooler UK inflation but outlook remains challenging.Cable is now down to 1.2908, lower by 0.3% on the day, following the softer UK CPI report here. The pair was trading around 1.2940 before the inflation numbers with traders pricing in ~45% odds of a rate cut for May.