英镑兑美元汇率升至1.363美元以上，为7月初以来的最高点，市场正等待着央行一周的繁忙决策和英国数据。预计英格兰银行周四将把利率维持在4%，同时放缓其1000亿英镑的年度债券解除。周三公布的英国8月份通胀率预计为3.8%，与7月份的18个月高点持平，零售额将在稍后公布。最新就业数据显示，除奖金外，工资增长4.8%，包括奖金在内，工资增长4.7%，失业率稳定在4.7%，工资减少8000人，所有这些都符合预期。这些数据表明，劳动力市场逐渐放缓，英国央行的降息押注基本保持不变，到12月，市场只有三分之一的降息机会。与此同时，人们普遍预计美联储将在周三降息25个基点，交易员预计到2025年底至少还会再降息两次。

The British pound rose past $1.363, the highest since early July, as markets awaited a busy week of central bank decisions and UK data. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4% on Thursday while slowing its £100 billion annual bond unwind. UK inflation for August, due Wednesday, is forecast at 3.8% y/y, matching July’s 18-month high, with retail sales to follow later. Latest jobs data showed wage growth excluding bonuses at 4.8% and 4.7% including bonuses, unemployment steady at 4.7%, and payrolls down 8,000, all in line with expectations. The figures indicate a gradually slowing labor market, leaving BoE rate-cut bets largely unchanged, with markets seeing only a one-in-three chance of a cut by December. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, with traders pricing in at least two more reductions by the end of 2025.

在最新的就业报告发布后，英国10年期国债收益率保持在4.64%，因为投资者在忙碌的一周央行决策和英国关键数据之前保持谨慎。预计英格兰银行将在周四将利率保持在4%，同时放缓其1000亿英镑的年度债券解除。不包括奖金的工资增长率为4.8%，包括奖金的增长率为4.7%，均符合预期，而失业率仍为4.7%，就业人数下降了8000人，低于预期。这些数据表明，劳动力市场正在逐渐放缓，而不是崩溃，这使得英国央行降息的赌注几乎没有变化。人们的注意力还将集中在8月份的CPI上，预计为3.8%，几乎是英国央行2%目标的两倍，以及即将到来的零售额。与此同时，人们普遍预计美联储周三将降息25个基点，市场预计到2025年底将至少再降息两次。

The UK’s 10-year gilt yield held at 4.64% after the latest jobs report, as investors remained cautious ahead of a busy week of central bank decisions and key UK data. The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 4% on Thursday while slowing its £100 billion annual bond unwind. Wage growth came in at 4.8% excluding bonuses and 4.7% including bonuses, both in line with expectations, while unemployment remained at 4.7% and payrolls fell by 8,000, less than expected. The data points to a gradually slowing labor market rather than a collapse, leaving BoE rate cut bets little changed. Attention will also focus on August CPI, forecast at 3.8% y/y, nearly double the BoE’s 2% target, and upcoming retail sales. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, with markets pricing in at least two further cuts by the end of 2025.

富时100指数周二下跌，标志着连续第三次下跌，因为投资者权衡了企业新闻和英国新的就业数据。易捷航空股价下跌超过2.5%，此前摩根大通警告称，运力增长和定价疲软正在给休闲和海滩旅游市场带来压力。Haleon在降级后下跌约1.5%，而劳斯莱斯则下跌0.5%，尽管其动力系统部门从立陶宛的Ignitis获得了创纪录的电池订单。联合利华在任命Srinivas Phatak为永久首席财务官后下跌了近1%，而英美资源集团在同意智利Codelco共同开发邻近铜矿后上涨。在经济方面，不包括奖金的工资增长率为4.8%，包括奖金的增长率为4.7%，均与预测相符。失业率保持在4.7%，就业人数下降了8000人，降幅小于预期。

The FTSE 100 fell on Tuesday, marking a third straight decline as investors weighed corporate news and fresh UK jobs data. EasyJet slid over 2.5% after JPMorgan warned that capacity growth and weaker pricing are pressuring the leisure and beach travel market. Haleon dropped about 1.5% after a downgrade, while Rolls-Royce eased 0.5% despite its Power Systems unit securing a record battery order from Lithuania’s Ignitis. Unilever lost nearly 1% after naming Srinivas Phatak as permanent CFO, while Anglo American rose after agreeing with Chile’s Codelco to jointly develop adjacent copper mines. On the economic front, wage growth excluding bonuses came in at 4.8% and 4.7% including bonuses, both in line with forecasts. Unemployment stayed at 4.7%, and payrolls fell by 8,000, a smaller drop than expected.

英国劳动力市场数据接近共识。美国国债昨日采取了一项举措，在9月份帝国制造业调查疲软的情况下小幅上涨（从11.9比预期的5下降到-8.7）。交易量较低，美国国债收益率最终下跌2个基点至3个基点，曲线腹部表现优于侧翼。

UK Labour Market Data Print Close to Consensus.US Treasuries made one move yesterday, gaining slightly ground on a weak September Empire Manufacturing survey (-8.7 from 11.9 vs 5 expected). Traded volumes were low with US yields eventually losing 2 bps to 3 bps with the belly of the curve outperforming the wings.