2025年第一季度，泰国国内生产总值同比增长3.1%，超过2.9%的预测。然而，最新结果与2024年第四季度向上修正的3.3%的增长有所缓和，这是自2022年第三季度以来最强劲的年度增长。私人消费（2.6%对第四季度的3.4%）、政府支出（3.4%对5.4%）和固定投资（4.7%对5.1%）的增长都有所放缓。在贸易方面，出口（12.3%对11.5%）增长快于进口（2.1%对8.2%），对GDP做出了积极贡献，因为工厂在特朗普的新关税之前争相发货。在生产方面，非农业增长放缓（2.9%对3.6%），建筑业（16.2%对18.3%）领涨。与此同时，农业产出大幅增长（5.7%对1.1%）。由于美国关税的影响，NESD将2025年的经济增长预测从早些时候的2.3%至3.3%下调至1.3%至2.3%，并将出口增长预测从3.5%下调至1.8%。去年，国内生产总值增长了2.5%，略低于2.7%的官方目标。

Thailand’s GDP grew by 3.1% yoy in Q1 of 2025, exceeding forecasts of 2.9%. However, the latest result eased from an upwardly revised 3.3% expansion in Q4 of 2024, which was the strongest yearly rise since Q3 of 2022. Private consumption (2.6% vs 3.4% in Q4), government spending (3.4% vs 5.4%), and fixed investment (4.7% vs 5.1%) all showed slower growth. On the trade front, exports (12.3% vs 11.5%) increased faster than imports (2.1% vs 8.2%), contributing positively to GDP, as factories rushed to ship goods ahead of Trump's new tariffs. Production-wise, non-agricultural growth slowed (2.9% vs 3.6%), led by construction (16.2% vs 18.3%). Meanwhile, agricultural output grew sharply (5.7% vs 1.1%). The NESD cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.3% to 2.3% from a range of 2.3% to 3.3% seen earlier, and also lowered its forecast for export growth to 1.8% from 3.5%, due to the impact of US tariffs. Last year, the GDP grew by 2.5%, slightly below the official target of 2.7%.

泰国经济在2025年第一季度环比增长0.7%，略高于市场预测的0.6%，并从2024年第四季度的0.4%增长加速。这标志着连续第五个季度扩张，主要得益于私人消费（0.7%对第四季度的0.6%）和净贸易。出口增长（2.0%对3.0%），因为工厂在美国总统特朗普的新关税之前急于发货，而进口则因经济形势导致国内需求疲软而下降（-2.4%对2.3%）。与此同时，政府支出（-1.4%对-0.2%）和固定投资（-2.2%对-2.0%）的下降速度更快。在生产方面，非农业放缓（0.3%对0.4%），原因是工业活动下降更快（-0.6%对-0.4%）和服务业产出疲软（0.6%对1.4%）。与此同时，农业增长3.4%，高于第四季度1.7%的增长。

Thailand’s economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 of 2025, slightly above market forecasts of 0.6% and accelerating from a 0.4% rise in Q4 of 2024. This marked the fifth consecutive period of quarterly expansion, primarily boosted by private consumption (0.7% vs 0.6% in Q4) and net trade. Exports rose (2.0% vs 3.0%), as factories rushed to ship goods ahead of US President Trump's new tariffs, while imports declined (-2.4% vs 2.3%) amid weakening domestic demand due to the economic situation. Meanwhile, both government spending (-1.4% vs -0.2%) and fixed investment (-2.2% vs -2.0%) dropped at a faster rate. Production-wise, the non-agriculture moderated (0.3% vs 0.4%), owing to faster falls in industrial activity (-0.6% vs -0.4%) and subdued services output (0.6% vs 1.4%). Meanwhile, agriculture increased 3.4%, picking up from a 1.7% growth in Q4.

泰国商会大学的消费者信心指数从3月份的56.7降至2025年4月的55.4，标志着消费者信心连续第三次下降。这是自去年9月以来的最低水平，当时经济复苏脆弱，人们对美国关税感到担忧。去年，泰国对美国的贸易顺差总计50亿美元。上个月，泰国财政部长Pichai Chunhavajira表示，关税可能会使经济增长率降低1个百分点。本月早些时候，由于美国关税和全球经济放缓的影响，财政部将2025年的增长预测从3%下调至2.1%。2024年，国内生产总值增长了2.5%，低于2.7%的官方目标。在价格方面，泰国4月份消费者价格同比下降0.22%，这是自2024年3月以来的首次通货紧缩，超出了央行1%至3%的目标范围。

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s consumer confidence index fell to 55.4 in April 2025 from March’s 56.7, marking the third consecutive decline in consumer sentiment. It was the lowest reading since last September, amid a fragile economic recovery and concerns over US tariffs. Thailand's trade surplus with the US totaled USD 5 billion last year. Last month, Thailand’s Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said that the tariffs could lower growth by 1 percentage point. Earlier this month, the finance ministry cut its 2025 forecast for growth to 2.1% from 3% due to the impact of US tariffs and a global slowdown. In 2024, GDP grew by 2.5%, below the official target of 2.7%. On the price front, Thailand's consumer prices fell 0.22% yoy in April, the first deflation since March 2024 and outside the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%.

泰国商业信心指数从3月份的50.2降至2025年4月的47.1，为六个月来的最低水平。这一下降是由几乎所有关键组成部分的急剧恶化造成的，特别是业务绩效（46.6比54.5）和生产（47.3比54.2），主要是由于工作日减少和需求疲软。出口状况也从54.1大幅恶化至48.7，反映出对美国互惠关税的担忧加剧。此外，由于招聘谨慎和活动疲软，就业情绪下降（48.2比49.1），而对投资的看法则小幅下降（52.1比52.5）。与此同时，整体订单量从51.2降至49.3，突显出国内需求放缓。展望未来，4月份的三个月预期商业信心指数从3月份的50.7降至48.9，表明未来的预期更加谨慎。

Thailand's business confidence indicator dropped to 47.1 in April 2025 from 50.2 in March, marking the lowest reading in six months. The decline was driven by sharp deterioration across nearly all key components, particularly in business performance (46.6 vs 54.5) and production (47.3 vs 54.2), largely due to fewer working days and softer demand. Export conditions also worsened significantly to 48.7 from 54.1, reflecting rising concerns over U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, employment sentiment declined (48.2 vs 49.1) amid hiring caution and weaker activity, while views on investment edged lower (52.1 vs 52.5). Meanwhile, overall order books slipped to 49.3 from 51.2, highlighting easing domestic demand. Looking ahead, the three-month expected business sentiment index weakened to 48.9 in April from 50.7 in March, signaling more cautious expectations going forward.